2026 Singapore Fixed Income Outlook: A Sanctuary for Investors in Uncertain Times

5 February 2026

Alvin Ong, Head of Singapore Fixed Income

Esther Koon, Portfolio Manager

Joshua Phoon, Portfolio Manager

Singapore bonds posted strong performance in 2025 amid a raft of global challenges on the back of structural inflows and sovereign strength. In this 2026 Outlook, the Singapore Fixed Income team outlines the underlying fundamentals and catalysts supporting positive momentum for the asset class in the new year and why the market is increasingly seen as a sanctuary for investors in uncertain times.

Summary:

Singapore fixed income enters 2026 on a solid footing, primarily due to the drivers of strong structural inflows and resilient sovereign strength.
Inflation in Singapore appears to be bottoming out. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to retain its appreciating policy stance for now, though additional tightening remains possible if growth or inflation surprises to the upside.
Front-end rates declined sharply in 2025; however, we see less scope for Singapore Government Securities (SGS) to outperform US Treasuries in 2026. In contrast with other markets, steepening pressure on the long end of the SGS curve is likely to be contained in the new year due to strong macro fundamentals and a reduction in duration of new issues relative to 2025.
The Singapore dollar credit market is expected to remain well-supported in 2026, underpinned by strong market technicals—robust investor demand and limited new supply.

The Singapore bond market enters 2026 on a solid footing, having delivered robust returns in 2025 amid a complex global environment of elevated uncertainty.

The iBoxx Singapore index, which tracks the asset class, posted a strong gain of +7.65% (in Singapore Dollars) last year, reflecting resilient investor demand and the safe-haven status of Singapore bonds.

This positive momentum is expected to continue over the upcoming year, supported by structural inflows, sound sovereign fundamentals, and a dynamic credit landscape.

Structural Inflows and Sovereign Strength

A key driver of recent performance has been the broad de-dollarisation trend, which has channelled significant inflows into Singapore Government Securities (SGS) and Singapore dollar credit throughout 2025.

The visibility and accessibility of the Singapore dollar bond market have increased as global investors seek diversification away from US dollar assets. This trend is likely to persist into 2026, sustaining demand for both SGS and local corporate bonds.

Singapore’s sovereign strength remains a cornerstone of market stability. The country is the only one in Asia to hold AAA ratings from all three major credit rating agencies—a distinction shared by only nine countries globally.

This gold-standard credit quality is underpinned by Singapore’s constitutional requirement for balanced budgets, which reinforces fiscal discipline and investor confidence. In addition, many high-quality Singapore corporates maintain close links to the sovereign and major local banks, underpinning the Singapore bond market’s resilience.

Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) eased policy twice in 2025, responding to a global environment marked by shifting trade dynamics and increasing protectionist measures.

While Singapore’s growth exceeded expectations last year, growing 4.8% (year on year), export momentum is likely to moderate in 2026 as global trade faces new tariff threats. Nevertheless, Singapore’s resilient services segment and ongoing public sector projects should help cushion any negative impact. Capital expenditure on artificial intelligence is poised to support export growth and investment activity further.

Inflation in Singapore appears to be bottoming out. MAS has recently revised its headline and core inflation forecasts to 1.0-2.0%, from the previous range of 0.5-1.5%. However, core inflation is still projected to remain slightly below trend in 2026.

MAS is likely to retain its appreciating policy stance for now, though additional tightening remains possible if growth or inflation surprises to the upside.

Rates, Curve Dynamics, and Relative Value

Front-end rates such as SORA (Singapore Overnight Rate Average) declined sharply in 2025, driven by US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and abundant liquidity.

This spillover effect benefited the broader SGS curve, with SGS outperforming US Treasuries over the past year. Accommodative liquidity conditions are expected to persist over the forthcoming year, acting as a natural hedge against sharp rises in SGS yields and supporting Singapore’s safe-haven appeal. Continued capital inflows should help keep domestic interest rates low.

Nevertheless, we see less scope for SGS to outperform US Treasuries further in 2026. Current valuations make US Treasuries relatively attractive, though Singapore investors should consider the high cost of currency hedging when expressing this view.

While the rate differential between SGS and US Treasuries has narrowed, it remains wide by historical standards, suggesting only modest potential for further SGS gains. The cost of currency hedging is likely to decline gradually as US front-end rates fall in response to ongoing Fed easing.

Support for Long-end of Singapore Yield Curve

As developed fixed-income markets experience potential steepening pressures amid deteriorating fiscal and budget dynamics, we believe investors are likely to rotate toward sovereign markets with stronger macro fundamentals, including SGS.

In contrast with other markets, steepening pressure on the long end of the SGS curve is likely to be contained in 2026. The regular issuance calendar does not include a 50-year bond, and only one 30-year bond is scheduled for issuance in the first quarter of the new year.

Overall, the duration or average maturity of SGS new issues will be reduced relative to 2025, which should support the longer end of the curve. Notably, a new 20-year green SGS is planned for issuance in the second half of 2026 via syndication, further supporting Singapore’s leadership in sustainable finance.

Singapore Credit Market and Issuance Outlook

As cash rates decline, investors will likely need to move away from cash and short-dated instruments into longer-duration credit to achieve higher-yielding portfolios.

The Singapore dollar credit market is expected to remain well-supported in 2026, underpinned by strong market technicals—robust investor demand and limited new supply.

Recently, MAS provided clarity regarding the treatment of Singapore AT1 (Additional Tier 1) and Tier 2 bank and insurance papers and has decided against a more punitive approach that would restrict retail investors’ exposure to such instruments.

These clarifications have removed uncertainty, which should benefit the financial sector. High-quality, sovereign-linked issuers of SGD credit are expected to provide stable carry, while foreign issuers may offer pockets of alpha-generation opportunities through new issue concessions and yield enhancements.

Further, sustainability-related issuance of SGD corporate bonds is projected to rise, reflecting growing demand for sustainable finance and strong domestic policy support. The increasing ease with which global issuers can tap the SGD market for funding also broadens the investment universe and enhances market liquidity.

Chart 1: Credit spread of SGD bonds versus Asian dollar bonds¹

current-outlook-for-semiconductors-and-ai-related-industries

Chart 2: Historical SGD bond issuance (SGD bn)²

current-outlook-for-semiconductors-and-ai-related-industries

2026 Singapore Fixed Income – Compelling, Stable Market

While the outlook for the Singapore bond market remains constructive, investors should remain vigilant for signs of liquidity withdrawal, particularly if economic growth and inflation exceed expectations.

Such developments could put selling pressure on SGS and Singapore dollar credit. Additionally, global policy uncertainty—especially around US fiscal and trade policies—may continue to influence investor sentiment and contribute to market volatility.

That said, a combination of sovereign strength, robust technicals, and increasing sustainability-related issuance positions the Singapore bond market as a compelling choice for investors seeking stability, diversification, and sustainable income in 2026 amid heightened uncertainty in global markets.

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1 Source: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2025.

2 Source: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2025.

2026 AP REITs Outlook: From Rate Relief to Growth Revival

After posting positive performance in 2025, Asia Pacific ex-Japan REITs (AP REITs) are set for a pivotal transition from a period of rate-driven relief to a phase of growth revival. In this 2026 Outlook, Portfolio Managers Hui Min Ng and Derrick Heng analyse how declining interest rates are opening two avenues of growth for the asset class – organic growth via interest cost savings and inorganic growth via capital recycling. Additionally, the team explains how catalysts such as favourable historic relative valuations and positive policy changes in regional exchanges enhance the attractiveness of AP REITs for investors, ending with sectors that the team favours for the new year.

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2026 Outlook Series: Global Equity Diversified Income

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2026 AP REITs Outlook: From Rate Relief to Growth Revival

After posting positive performance in 2025, Asia Pacific ex-Japan REITs (AP REITs) are set for a pivotal transition from a period of rate-driven relief to a phase of growth revival. In this 2026 Outlook, Portfolio Managers Hui Min Ng and Derrick Heng analyse how declining interest rates are opening two avenues of growth for the asset class – organic growth via interest cost savings and inorganic growth via capital recycling. Additionally, the team explains how catalysts such as favourable historic relative valuations and positive policy changes in regional exchanges enhance the attractiveness of AP REITs for investors, ending with sectors that the team favours for the new year.

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2026 Outlook Series: Global Equity Diversified Income

Equity market leadership could broaden in 2026 beyond mega-cap technology, creating opportunities across sectors and regions. Global economic growth is expected to stabilize, supported by fiscal spending and easing monetary policy in key markets. Europe and select Asian economies offer attractive valuations and improving fundamentals, complementing US resilience. Value and income-focused strategies may regain prominence alongside growth, supported by quality fundamentals. The Global Equity Diversified Income strategy is positioned for diversification across geographies, sectors, and styles, aiming for income and capital appreciation.

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2026 Outlook Series: Manulife Global Multi-Asset Diversified Income Fund

In 2026, a clearer macroeconomic outlook is expected as momentum improves following strong 2025 drivers such as AI growth, energy transition, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and wider fiscal support. While the US Federal Reserve is likely to continue easing policy, diverse income opportunities remain across global markets, extending beyond traditional government bonds to high yield assets and option writing. Within this environment, the Manulife Global Fund – Global Multi‑Asset Diversified Income Fund (GMADI) remains with a clear and heightened focus towards income generation. The Fund seeks to deliver a high and consistent distribution income while maintaining exposure to long term capital growth opportunities.

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Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
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This website is not intended for use by any individual in any jurisdiction where, due to their nationality, residence, foreign exchange control or other circumstances, the publication or access to this website is restricted or prohibited. It shall be the sole responsibility of the investor to acquaint themselves with, and to comply with, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.
Funds offered on this platform may invest in equity, fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds, collective investment schemes and/or other instruments, including derivatives, and each of which has its specific investment objective/ policy with its specific features and different risk profile.
Distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends are not guaranteed. Dividend of certain share/unit classes, at the fund or the investment manager’s discretion, may be paid out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share/unit of the respective share/unit classes after the distribution date.
Some funds may invest in bonds or debt securities which may be subject to credit, liquidity, counterparty and market risks.
Some funds may invest in non-investment grade bonds and unrated securities which may be subject to greater credit and liquidity risks, and may be more volatile than higher rated securities. Some funds may invest in investment grade debt securities, which may be subject to ratings downgrades by the rating agencies that may affect the net asset value of the fund.
Some funds may invest in derivative instruments which may involve additional risks. (For example, leverage may cause greater volatility.)
Some funds may make extensive use of derivatives including more complex derivative instruments or strategies to achieve the investment objective, this may give rise to additional exposure in that performance may rise or fall more than it would have done otherwise. In adverse situations, the fund’s use of derivative instruments may become ineffective and the fund may suffer significant losses. The use of derivatives may give rise to leverage, liquidity, counterparty and valuation risks.
Some funds may invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Some funds may invest in securities of small and/or medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Some funds may invest in a single country/region and/or a particular industry sector which may be concentrated and subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Some funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via the Stock Connect, which may involve risks related to investments via the Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Some funds may have significant exposure to Renminbi ("RMB") bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, which will be subject to debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more established markets.
Some funds with significant exposure to RMB bonds/equity/assets may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments to invest in. This may adversely affect the funds’ return and performance.
Some funds using Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (“QFII”) quota to invest directly in debt instruments/shares in Mainland China may be subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to QFII investment and custodial risks.
Some funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds with substantial RMB exposure may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
Some funds’ performance will be closely tied to the economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, market, currency or other conditions in the European Economic Area and may be subject to increased liquidity, price, and foreign exchange risk.
Some funds may invest in Russia and some investments in Russian securities may be unlisted securities not dealt on a regulated market. The Russian market presents specific risks in relation to the settlement and safekeeping of securities.
Investment involves risk. Investors may expose to capital loss and should not invest solely based on the information on this website alone and should read the offering documents for details including the associated risk factors, charges and features of the funds and their share/unit classes. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance.

Manulife Global Fund

Manulife Global Fund is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing in equity and/or fixed income securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk profile and may involve equity market, geographical concentration, sovereign debt, liquidity, volatility, credit downgrade, interest rate, counterparty risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class.
The relevant distributing class of the sub-funds does not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of income, realized capital gains and/or out of capital of certain sub-funds in respect of Inc share class(es). Dividends may be paid out of realized capital gains, capital and/or gross income while charging all or part of their fees and expenses to capital (i.e. payment of fees and expenses out of capital) in respect of MDIST (G), R MDIST (G) and F MDIST (G) share class(es). Dividends paid out of capital of these sub-funds amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of the amount of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value per share in respect of such class(es) of the sub-funds. Fixed yield share classes pay out a pre-determined annualized fixed percentage of their NAV, which can be adjusted by the Directors with at least one month’s prior notice, do not entirely reflect the actual or expected income or performance of the Fund. These distributions may exceed the actual income, leading to capital erosion, especially during negative returns or losses, and may reduce future capital growth. A positive distribution yield does not guarantee a positive return, and the absolute distributions vary with the NAV, resulting in fluctuating monthly payouts for investors.
Certain sub-funds invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose their investors to capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds and their share classes.
Each sub-fund intends to use financial derivative instruments (“FDIs”) for investment, efficient portfolio management and/or hedging purposes. The use of FDIs exposes the Fund to additional risks, including counterparty/credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk.
Given RMB is currently not a freely convertible currency, payment of redemptions and/or dividend payment in RMB may be delayed due to the exchange controls and restrictions applicable to RMB. As offshore RMB (CNH) will be used for the valuation of RMB denominated Class(es), CNH rate may be at a premium or discount to the exchange rate for onshore RMB (CNY) and there may be significant bid and offer spreads and thus the value of the RMB denominated Class(es) will be subject to fluctuation. Any devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated Class(es) of certain sub-funds.

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing primarily in equity and bond securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in. This may adversely affect its return and performance.
Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Bond Market and custodial risks.
RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose to a high risk of capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds.

Manulife Hong Kong Series

Manulife Hong Kong Series (“the Series”) is an open-ended unit trust comprising a number of funds primarily investing in equities, debt securities, exchange-traded funds and/or collective investment schemes, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
Certain funds may involve equity market, emerging markets, Dim Sum bond market, concentration, volatility, liquidity, credit, credit ratings, below investment grade and unrated securities, credit rating downgrading, interest rates, valuation, sovereign debt, unlisted debt securities, political and regulatory, currency, foreign exchange, derivative and structured product, hedging, and distribution risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class..
Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
Certain fund is subject to the risks relating to investment in exchange traded funds, Strategic and Tactical Asset Rebalancing Strategy (“STARS”), small- and mid-capped companies, convertible bonds and the risks associated with securitised debt instruments and investments in loss-absorption features. Certain fund is a feeder fund that invests all or substantially all of its assets in another collective investment scheme (the “master fund”) and is therefore subject to the risks of investing in the master fund.
Certain fund will not have direct investments other than cash, cash equivalents and financial derivative instruments (such as futures, options and forwards).
Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.