
Macroeconomic Strategy Team
10 January 2023
As we consider the year ahead, we expect to see a game of two halves, where challenging conditions will prevail in the first half before improving through the second half. The aggressive pace of monetary tightening and its associated lagged effects should drive a synchronised global growth downturn in the first half.
We expect global growth to slow materially and come in substantially lower than the below 3% threshold that the International Monetary Fund uses to define global recessions. A downturn of this magnitude—excluding the COVID-19 shock and the global financial crisis—could make 2023 the worst year for global growth since the 1980s. We expect the economic slump to become more apparent in the first half of the year, with a cyclical bottom only occurring in Q2/Q3.
Our analysis shows that most advanced economies are likely to experience a recession in the year ahead. Given that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has been hiking rates at the fastest pace in decades, the U.S. economy will be facing the lingering effects of substantial policy tightening, with real rates rising while inflation eases gradually.
Market’s view on the probability of a global recession (%)

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Manulife Investment Management, as of 13 December, 2022.
Economic weakness will be particularly pronounced in interest-rate-sensitive economies such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom—these economies would almost certainly be confronting downside risks as a result of spillovers from their respective weaker housing markets. In Continental Europe, the growth drag will predominantly stem from particularly large negative terms-of-trade shocks.
Meanwhile, slowing final demand from advanced economies, elevated inflation, and a still-strong U.S. dollar (USD) will likely morph into material headwinds for growth in emerging markets (EM). In mainland China, a bumpy exit from zero-COVID policy, weak external demand, a still struggling property sector, and insufficient policy support look set to extend the country’s below-trend GDP into 2024. That said, the prospects for the rest of Asia’s economies are a little more mixed: We expect weak foreign demand to weigh on export growth, but North Asia is particularly vulnerable in light of a likely inventory overhang. On the other hand, weakness in ASEAN countries will likely be cushioned by a strong reopening bounce and relatively healthy household balance sheets.
Amid a macro backdrop characterized by elevated global inflation, uncertainty over when Fed rates might peak, and rising odds of a global recession, the first half of 2023 could bear witness to a series of sharper—and longer—bouts of market volatility. Thankfully, the picture does brighten slightly in the second half, during which these headwinds are likely to moderate, ushering in more conducive conditions for financial markets.
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The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.
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2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: GEDI
Against a highly uncertain backdrop in the first half of 2026, Manulife’s Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund (‘the Fund’) posted resilient performance with relatively lower volatility. This result was driven by the Fund’s four investment pillars, which favour an income-centric approach, coupled with global diversification across growth, value, and income equities. In this 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, Paul Kalogirou, Head of Client Portfolio Management, Asia & Global Multi-Asset Solutions, explains how the Fund’s unique structure allows for consistent income generation and potential upside across the market cycle, while also identifying key opportunities and risks for the second half of the year.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Global Semiconductor
The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.
2026 Mid-year Outlook Series: Diversified Real Assets
Global supply chains are resetting under deglobalisation and geopolitics, shifting from global efficiency to more expensive regional resilience, embedding higher structural costs. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a new demand driver, accelerating investment in power, infrastructure, and materials. Against this backdrop of structurally higher inflation and dual demand pressures – from both supply-chain rewiring and AI capital expenditure – we believe real assets may play an increasingly important role in portfolios, offering exposure to long-term secular growth and AI trends.