Skip to main content
Back

2026 Mid-year outlook: Greater China Equities

15 July 2026

Kai Kong Chay, Senior Portfolio Manager, Greater China Equities

Wenlin Li, Senior Portfolio Manager, Greater China Equities

Ben Yu, Head of Equities, Taiwan Region

Greater China equity markets showed divergent trends in the first half of 2026, with China A-shares and the Taiwan Taiex index registering strong gains driven by resilient technology exports amid global demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, the MSCI China market pulled back, weighed by commerce subsidies amid fierce competition in food delivery and rising AI capital expenditure, which we believe have already been priced in. In this mid-year Outlook, we highlight five positive drivers for China and Hong Kong equities in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the team explains why it believes the Taiwan region’s technology sector should continue to enjoy positive growth.

Summary:

  1. The Chinese Mainland’s economy should continue to recover on the back of strong export growth driven by advanced manufacturing product upgrades, domestic technology breakthrough and increased government and corporate investment in the Chinese Mainland’s AI and technology ecosystem.
  2. The anti-involution effort, as well as improving commodity prices, is expected to drive better corporate earnings in the second half of 2026 and reflationary hopes. We anticipate that the positive earnings trend in China A-share market to continue over the next 12 to 18 months, driven by economic recovery.
  3. For Taiwan region, new platform specifications undergo comprehensive upgrades, the embedded value of components should rise in tandem, benefiting the Taiwan region’s technology supply chain.

 

Download the full version

 

  • 2026 Mid-year outlook: Asian Fixed Income

    In this Mid-Year Outlook, the Asian Fixed Income team explains this important change in monetary policy expectations, and why the asset class is well positioned to capitalise on it.

    Read more
  • 2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: Asia Equities ex-Japan

    Asia equities ex-Japan continued the significant momentum from 2025 with strong performance throughout the first half of the year. Amid numerous catalysts, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities outlines in this Mid-Year Outlook why she is constructive on the asset class for the remainder of 2026. Positive drivers include: potential geopolitical resolution in the Middle East and lower energy costs, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across the region.

    Read more
  • 2026 Mid-year outlook: Global Semiconductor

    The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.

    Read more
See all
  • 2026 Mid-year outlook: Asian Fixed Income

    In this Mid-Year Outlook, the Asian Fixed Income team explains this important change in monetary policy expectations, and why the asset class is well positioned to capitalise on it.

    read more
  • 2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: Asia Equities ex-Japan

    Asia equities ex-Japan continued the significant momentum from 2025 with strong performance throughout the first half of the year. Amid numerous catalysts, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities outlines in this Mid-Year Outlook why she is constructive on the asset class for the remainder of 2026. Positive drivers include: potential geopolitical resolution in the Middle East and lower energy costs, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across the region.

    read more
  • 2026 Mid-year outlook: Global Semiconductor

    The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.

    read more
see all
Important notice

With effect from 2 July 2026, the Customer Service Centre of Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited is relocated to 23/F., Manulife Tower, One Bay East, 83 Hoi Bun Road, Kwun Tong, Kowloon.  This centre provides customer services in relation to Manulife InvestChoice Accounts, Manulife Advanced Fund SFC, Manulife Global Fund and Manulife Hong Kong Series.  Please call Customer Contact Centre at 2108 1110 to make an appointment prior to your visit.  

View more