16 May 2024
James Robertson, Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Asset Allocation–Canada, Global Head of Tactical Asset Allocation, Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Investors are navigating an environment characterized by significant global economic resilience, but with crosscurrents. We review some of the themes driving our latest asset allocation outlook.
As we near the midpoint of 2024, the monetary policy landscape is some distance from what markets anticipated at the start of the year. A holding pattern persists, and uncertainty remains around how hard or soft the landing will be when it comes. In our view, several key themes are poised to shape financial markets in the coming months.
Broad equity markets continue to demonstrate strong performance, a trend bolstered by the robust American consumer and stable job market. These factors have helped global economies avoid significant downturns, suggesting a continuation of this positive trajectory; however, increasing desynchronization among developed economies introduces complexities that investors need to manage.
In the United States, economic resilience stands in stark contrast to the situation in the United Kingdom and Japan, where economies have either flirted with or entered recessionary periods—defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Other G7 nations appear to be on a comparable path. In contrast, Asian markets broadly offer diverse investment opportunities, with South Korea and Japan emphasizing their manufacturing strengths, and India benefiting from vigorous domestic activity.
The previously expected easing in the federal funds rate starting mid-2024 has been scaled back to potentially one cut, with debate about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) might hold rates steady for the remainder of the year. This recalibration in expectations is likely to keep fixed-income volatility high and maintain upward pressure on rates across the yield curve. While the global rate-hiking cycle may have concluded, navigating the evolving landscape requires caution.
Fixed-income overview

Source: Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management, 30 April, 2024.
Market consensus suggests that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may adjust their policies ahead of the Fed. Switzerland became the first major economy to cut interest rates after a surprise 0.25% cut in March to take its main interest rate to 1.50%. Also in March, Mexico cut its interest rate by 0.25%, taking its overnight interest rate to 11%, while Brazil lowered its interest rate to 10.75%, cutting by 0.50%.
Despite higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, gold has surged 15% since early February. We believe that it could have further to go as recent strength is underpinned by several distinct factors, namely:
As well as increasing by 15% since early February, the metal has also broken through its price pattern, potentially suggesting a higher price range going forward.
Gold prices trending upward due to demand

Source: Bloomberg, May 2024. Spot gold prices are denominated in U.S. dollars.
We believe that gold combined with a broader mix of commodities may offer attractive potential upside for investors, especially as higher inflation and interest-rate volatility dilute the effectiveness of long duration bonds as a diversifier to equities.
Looking ahead, the enduring narrative of higher-for-longer interest rates presents some challenges for asset classes that would benefit from more accommodating monetary policy, such as U.S. small caps, which typically gain momentum in an easing cycle. Elevated valuations in the United States introduce risks related to corporate earnings, such as the possibility that the market's response to earnings reports may introduce volatility. Understanding these dynamics and some of the crosscurrents at play, while remaining adaptable, will be essential for navigating the anticipated complexities of global financial markets.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: GEDI
Against a highly uncertain backdrop in the first half of 2026, Manulife’s Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund (‘the Fund’) posted resilient performance with relatively lower volatility. This result was driven by the Fund’s four investment pillars, which favour an income-centric approach, coupled with global diversification across growth, value, and income equities. In this 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, Paul Kalogirou, Head of Client Portfolio Management, Asia & Global Multi-Asset Solutions, explains how the Fund’s unique structure allows for consistent income generation and potential upside across the market cycle, while also identifying key opportunities and risks for the second half of the year.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Global Semiconductor
The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.
2026 Mid-year Outlook Series: Diversified Real Assets
Global supply chains are resetting under deglobalisation and geopolitics, shifting from global efficiency to more expensive regional resilience, embedding higher structural costs. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a new demand driver, accelerating investment in power, infrastructure, and materials. Against this backdrop of structurally higher inflation and dual demand pressures – from both supply-chain rewiring and AI capital expenditure – we believe real assets may play an increasingly important role in portfolios, offering exposure to long-term secular growth and AI trends.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: GEDI
Against a highly uncertain backdrop in the first half of 2026, Manulife’s Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund (‘the Fund’) posted resilient performance with relatively lower volatility. This result was driven by the Fund’s four investment pillars, which favour an income-centric approach, coupled with global diversification across growth, value, and income equities. In this 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, Paul Kalogirou, Head of Client Portfolio Management, Asia & Global Multi-Asset Solutions, explains how the Fund’s unique structure allows for consistent income generation and potential upside across the market cycle, while also identifying key opportunities and risks for the second half of the year.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Global Semiconductor
The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.
2026 Mid-year Outlook Series: Diversified Real Assets
Global supply chains are resetting under deglobalisation and geopolitics, shifting from global efficiency to more expensive regional resilience, embedding higher structural costs. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a new demand driver, accelerating investment in power, infrastructure, and materials. Against this backdrop of structurally higher inflation and dual demand pressures – from both supply-chain rewiring and AI capital expenditure – we believe real assets may play an increasingly important role in portfolios, offering exposure to long-term secular growth and AI trends.