27 April 2026
Bradley L. Lutz, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager and Co-Head, Global Multi-Sector Fixed Income
Jeffrey N. Given, CFA, Head of Developed-Market Fixed Income, Senior Portfolio Manager
We’d characterize the current environment as being surprisingly resilient with respect to global growth. At the moment, the macroeconomic environment is challenged by trade tensions, geopolitical fragmentation, notable military conflicts, and rising interest rates in many countries.
Yield levels in most of the world’s developed markets have moved substantially higher in early 2026. In our view, high global yield levels position multi sector fixed income as very attractive relative to equities right now, but we feel that managing credit risk, currency risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk are as important as they've ever been.
The world is at a unique moment for global rates—interest rate paths are diverging among the world’s central banks. This is the first time that's happened since 1994.
The central banks of England, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and Europe are positioned for rate increases. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is positioned for one or two rate cuts in 2026.
Because countries’ growth and inflation dynamics vary across regions, we believe we need to maintain a high level of flexibility in managing interest rate risks.
As an active fixed-income manager, we think about interest rate risk every day.
We evaluate duration (how sensitive bonds are to interest rate changes) and interest rate exposures not just at the fixed-income subsector and overall portfolio level, but also on an individual country basis.
At the moment, more than a third of our duration exposure comes from outside the United States—these markets include Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and Europe.
Overall, our goal is to maintain both a balanced and opportunistic approach to managing interest rate risk.
Managing currency and liquidity risk is a core component of our portfolio construction process, particularly as market conditions shift quickly in response to macro and geopolitical events.
We see active global currency management as serving three roles for us.
We believe investors can benefit from incremental alpha by taking advantage of market volatility. Regarding liquidity risk, we'll continue to focus on maintaining a resilient portfolio structure. This means that we intend to hold a diversified mix of highly liquid fixed income instruments—i.e., a cash bond portfolio.
We expect geopolitical uncertainty to persist in the near term, but it should lead to a more favorable global fixed-income environment. Dispersion caused by current uncertainty is likely to create attractive entry points across several fixed-income subsectors. Our focus is to stay nimble, i.e., managing near-term risks while being prepared to capitalize on the broader opportunity.
In the rates market, we see a particularly compelling opportunity set outside North America. For instance, we’re embracing longer duration positions in markets such as Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and Europe. In terms of global currencies, we're taking a more selective approach regarding where we're finding value. At this point, we think it makes sense to reduce currency exposure to regions most likely to be directly affected by geopolitical uncertainty.
As we entered this year, the debate on the path for global central banks was, you know, pretty much consistent across the board, where the expectations were maybe a couple more cuts are being, or unchanged policy rates.
That has been turned on its head quite a bit over the last several weeks. Now in Europe, particularly expecting more central bank increases, a potential one here in the U.S. as well. I do think you need to look through that and take a look at what's going to happen in the next, you know, two to three years. I think any rate increases that we get will be short term. The impact of the consumer would be pretty big, especially in the face of the higher oil prices, and could lead to some damage to the economy and the longer term.
The geopolitical events that have occurred in the Middle East have thrown the markets for a loop, so to speak.
We’ve seen higher oil prices, you know, higher interest rate volatility. We do expect that to continue for the short run. The real unknown is how long does what's going on in the Middle East continue to occur? What are the repercussions coming out of it on the other side?
I think that the importance of this is for a fixed-income investor, really, is to take a look at longer term. And our strategies look at the world more on a bottom-up basis, understanding companies, understanding what you own, and trying to distill and take out that noise that you get on a day-to-day basis because it does change by the hour at this current pace.
I do think the public markets fixed-income area really shows a great opportunity for investors over the next 12 to 18 months.
Yields have increased and you have liquidity in that marketplace. So I think that creates a great opportunity. I also think the opportunity, especially when you're looking at a multi-asset manager, is finding the areas in the marketplace that maybe get overlooked with all the volatility that is occurring currently, and trying to find the pockets of value in that. Those markets as value is starting to be created.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Asian Fixed Income
In this Mid-Year Outlook, the Asian Fixed Income team explains this important change in monetary policy expectations, and why the asset class is well positioned to capitalise on it.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: Asia Equities ex-Japan
Asia equities ex-Japan continued the significant momentum from 2025 with strong performance throughout the first half of the year. Amid numerous catalysts, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities outlines in this Mid-Year Outlook why she is constructive on the asset class for the remainder of 2026. Positive drivers include: potential geopolitical resolution in the Middle East and lower energy costs, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across the region.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Greater China Equities
Greater China equity markets showed divergent trends in the first half of 2026, with China A-shares and the Taiwan Taiex index registering strong gains driven by resilient technology exports amid global demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, the MSCI China market pulled back, weighed by commerce subsidies amid fierce competition in food delivery and rising AI capital expenditure, which we believe have already been priced in. In this mid-year Outlook, we highlight five positive drivers for China and Hong Kong equities in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the team explains why it believes the Taiwan region’s technology sector should continue to enjoy positive momentum.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Asian Fixed Income
In this Mid-Year Outlook, the Asian Fixed Income team explains this important change in monetary policy expectations, and why the asset class is well positioned to capitalise on it.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: Asia Equities ex-Japan
Asia equities ex-Japan continued the significant momentum from 2025 with strong performance throughout the first half of the year. Amid numerous catalysts, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities outlines in this Mid-Year Outlook why she is constructive on the asset class for the remainder of 2026. Positive drivers include: potential geopolitical resolution in the Middle East and lower energy costs, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across the region.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Greater China Equities
Greater China equity markets showed divergent trends in the first half of 2026, with China A-shares and the Taiwan Taiex index registering strong gains driven by resilient technology exports amid global demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, the MSCI China market pulled back, weighed by commerce subsidies amid fierce competition in food delivery and rising AI capital expenditure, which we believe have already been priced in. In this mid-year Outlook, we highlight five positive drivers for China and Hong Kong equities in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the team explains why it believes the Taiwan region’s technology sector should continue to enjoy positive momentum.
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