27 April 2026
Bradley L. Lutz, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager and Co-Head, Global Multi-Sector Fixed Income
Jeffrey N. Given, CFA, Head of Developed-Market Fixed Income, Senior Portfolio Manager
We’d characterize the current environment as being surprisingly resilient with respect to global growth. At the moment, the macroeconomic environment is challenged by trade tensions, geopolitical fragmentation, notable military conflicts, and rising interest rates in many countries.
Yield levels in most of the world’s developed markets have moved substantially higher in early 2026. In our view, high global yield levels position multi sector fixed income as very attractive relative to equities right now, but we feel that managing credit risk, currency risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk are as important as they've ever been.
The world is at a unique moment for global rates—interest rate paths are diverging among the world’s central banks. This is the first time that's happened since 1994.
The central banks of England, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and Europe are positioned for rate increases. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is positioned for one or two rate cuts in 2026.
Because countries’ growth and inflation dynamics vary across regions, we believe we need to maintain a high level of flexibility in managing interest rate risks.
As an active fixed-income manager, we think about interest rate risk every day.
We evaluate duration (how sensitive bonds are to interest rate changes) and interest rate exposures not just at the fixed-income subsector and overall portfolio level, but also on an individual country basis.
At the moment, more than a third of our duration exposure comes from outside the United States—these markets include Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and Europe.
Overall, our goal is to maintain both a balanced and opportunistic approach to managing interest rate risk.
Managing currency and liquidity risk is a core component of our portfolio construction process, particularly as market conditions shift quickly in response to macro and geopolitical events.
We see active global currency management as serving three roles for us.
We believe investors can benefit from incremental alpha by taking advantage of market volatility. Regarding liquidity risk, we'll continue to focus on maintaining a resilient portfolio structure. This means that we intend to hold a diversified mix of highly liquid fixed income instruments—i.e., a cash bond portfolio.
We expect geopolitical uncertainty to persist in the near term, but it should lead to a more favorable global fixed-income environment. Dispersion caused by current uncertainty is likely to create attractive entry points across several fixed-income subsectors. Our focus is to stay nimble, i.e., managing near-term risks while being prepared to capitalize on the broader opportunity.
In the rates market, we see a particularly compelling opportunity set outside North America. For instance, we’re embracing longer duration positions in markets such as Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and Europe. In terms of global currencies, we're taking a more selective approach regarding where we're finding value. At this point, we think it makes sense to reduce currency exposure to regions most likely to be directly affected by geopolitical uncertainty.
As we entered this year, the debate on the path for global central banks was, you know, pretty much consistent across the board, where the expectations were maybe a couple more cuts are being, or unchanged policy rates.
That has been turned on its head quite a bit over the last several weeks. Now in Europe, particularly expecting more central bank increases, a potential one here in the U.S. as well. I do think you need to look through that and take a look at what's going to happen in the next, you know, two to three years. I think any rate increases that we get will be short term. The impact of the consumer would be pretty big, especially in the face of the higher oil prices, and could lead to some damage to the economy and the longer term.
The geopolitical events that have occurred in the Middle East have thrown the markets for a loop, so to speak.
We’ve seen higher oil prices, you know, higher interest rate volatility. We do expect that to continue for the short run. The real unknown is how long does what's going on in the Middle East continue to occur? What are the repercussions coming out of it on the other side?
I think that the importance of this is for a fixed-income investor, really, is to take a look at longer term. And our strategies look at the world more on a bottom-up basis, understanding companies, understanding what you own, and trying to distill and take out that noise that you get on a day-to-day basis because it does change by the hour at this current pace.
I do think the public markets fixed-income area really shows a great opportunity for investors over the next 12 to 18 months.
Yields have increased and you have liquidity in that marketplace. So I think that creates a great opportunity. I also think the opportunity, especially when you're looking at a multi-asset manager, is finding the areas in the marketplace that maybe get overlooked with all the volatility that is occurring currently, and trying to find the pockets of value in that. Those markets as value is starting to be created.
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半導體產業作為全球經濟的重要推動力，持續為人工智能（AI）、雲端運算及電氣化等長期增長趨勢提供關鍵技術支援。正如我們早前的觀點中提及，半導體是一個由結構性需求及實質基建投資所驅動的完整生態系統。隨著行業於2026年上半年錄得亮麗表現，我們對後市展望仍然正面，認為在盈利增長強勁、資本投資持續增加，以及企業AI使用率仍處於起步階段的支持下，行業升勢有望延續至2026年下半年，並進一步推進至2027年。
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在去全球化與地緣政治影響下，全球供應鏈正在重塑，由追求「全球化效率」轉向成本較高的「區域化韌性」，令結構性成本上升。同時，人工智能（AI）正成為新的需求動力，帶動電力、基建及原材料投資加速。在結構性通脹偏高，以及供應鏈重整與AI資本開支雙重需求推動下，我們認為實質資產在投資組合中的角色將日益重要，有助捕捉長期結構性增長及AI相關趨勢。
2026年下半年前景展望：環球股票多元入息
在2026年上半年高度不確定的市場環境中，宏利環球股票多元入息（GEDI）基金（「本基金」）表現穩健 ，並展現出相對較低的波動性。此成果主要來自本基金的四大投資支柱，採取以收益為核心的策略，並在全球多元分散配置增長型、價值型及收益型股票。在《2026年下半年展望》中，亞洲區多元資產執行總監、客戶投資組合管理主管高沛樂闡釋了本基金的獨特架構，如何在市場周期中提供穩定收益及捕捉潛在上升潛力，並同時指出下半年值得關注的主要機遇與風險。
2026年下半年前景展望：環球半導體
半導體產業作為全球經濟的重要推動力，持續為人工智能（AI）、雲端運算及電氣化等長期增長趨勢提供關鍵技術支援。正如我們早前的觀點中提及，半導體是一個由結構性需求及實質基建投資所驅動的完整生態系統。隨著行業於2026年上半年錄得亮麗表現，我們對後市展望仍然正面，認為在盈利增長強勁、資本投資持續增加，以及企業AI使用率仍處於起步階段的支持下，行業升勢有望延續至2026年下半年，並進一步推進至2027年。
2026年下半年前景展望：多元化實質資產
在去全球化與地緣政治影響下，全球供應鏈正在重塑，由追求「全球化效率」轉向成本較高的「區域化韌性」，令結構性成本上升。同時，人工智能（AI）正成為新的需求動力，帶動電力、基建及原材料投資加速。在結構性通脹偏高，以及供應鏈重整與AI資本開支雙重需求推動下，我們認為實質資產在投資組合中的角色將日益重要，有助捕捉長期結構性增長及AI相關趨勢。
