2 October 2025
The US Senate failed to pass a last-minute funding deal, triggering the first federal government shutdown in nearly seven years starting from 1 October. Our Multi-Asset Solutions Team shares insights on how markets have responded during past shutdowns, and how investors can position themselves amid the uncertainty.
While government shutdowns can involve federal layoffs and the suspension of nonessential operations, the behaviour of market sectors during these times has been inconsistent. In the shutdown that began in December 2018—the longest in history at 35 days—defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and real estate fared relatively well amid short-term volatility. A 16-day shutdown in October 2013 resulted in broad gains across all sectors without a clear theme; conversely, during the 21-day shutdown that began in December 1995, sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and materials struggled, whereas consumer staples and utilities were among the top performers. Overall, defensive sectors have typically moderately outperformed, but shutdowns have presented short-term windows that have been difficult to time.
Notably, no government shutdown has had a substantial adverse effect on the stock market. In each instance since 1980, the S&P 500 Index ended up higher one month after the start of a shutdown, indicating that the effects have been short-lived and relatively minor. While the 2018 shutdown was accompanied by a spike in market volatility, it wasn’t significant compared with the effect of other major market events. Other shutdowns haven’t caused large volatility shifts, as evidenced by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX Index). In our view, it’s crucial to recognise that shutdowns are often just one part of a broader market environment, with multiple macroeconomic and political factors in play. Although government instability can trigger volatility and reduce investor confidence, historical market performance suggests to us that the impact of shutdowns tend to be relatively minimal.
Investors should consider liquidity needs as part of a broader financial plan but should likely avoid changes to their asset allocation just because of a potential government shutdown, in our view. If anything, market volatility during government shutdowns has presented buying opportunities for tactical investors aiming to capitalise on mispriced or oversold assets.
A government shutdown should be regarded as a short-term political disruption that likely shouldn’t affect an investor's long-term financial plan. We believe an investor with a well-diversified portfolio designed for wealth preservation should remain steadfast and avoid impulsive decisions based on short-term political events.
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Global Multi Asset Diversified Income Strategy (GMADI) update: A balanced approach to market volatility
Global equity markets have recently experienced sharper movements, particularly in areas linked to artificial intelligence (AI). Earnings announcements from AI hardware, semiconductor and large cloud-computing companies have been key sources of volatility. Concerns about potential interest rate hikes have added to uncertainty. The Global Multi Asset Diversified Income (GMADI) Strategy has not been immune to these market movements. However, its income focus, broad diversification and relatively defensive positioning may help limit the effect of sharp changes in technology and growth-related investments.
Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund: Staying selective through market volatility
Global equity markets have recently experienced greater volatility. Much of this has been driven by earnings announcements from AI hardware, semiconductor and large cloud-computing companies. Concerns about potential interest rate hikes have also added to investor uncertainty. After a prolonged period of strong performance in AI-related areas, market expectations have become demanding. Even companies reporting solid results have experienced sharp share-price moves when their outlook has only met, rather than exceeded, investor expectations. Against this backdrop, the GEDI Fund remains focused on its core objective: generating income while maintaining diversified exposure to potential capital growth.
Real assets and the infrastructure behind AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) is often positioned as a story of models and applications, but its growth depends heavily on something far more tangible. Real assets such as data centres, power grids, and raw materials form the physical that supports AI development. As structural forces reshape the investment landscape, real assets are emerging as an enabler of the AI buildout.