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Global semiconductor opportunities Strategy: connecting our global team to uncover connectivity opportunities

6 March 2025

Ryan Davies, Lead Portfolio Manager, Global Semiconductor Opportunities

 From an investment perspective, we believe a diverse, global portfolio of high conviction, quality companies in these target industries offers an attractive, long-term risk-return profile underpinned by robust fundamentals, significant tailwinds, structural demand growth and earnings visibility.


Why focus on semiconductors and AI beneficiaries?

As the technology sector converges with every part of our daily lives, semiconductors are increasingly in the investment spotlight, and with good reason. The semiconductor sector holds enormous growth potential. Dubbed the ‘new oil’ of the 21st century, this core technology segment is powering the future and is set to become a thriving US$1 Trillion market by 20301.

The global semiconductor supply chain also holds significant growth potential as major economies push for self-sufficiency, opening the door to expanding government incentives to support the semiconductor industry. Furthermore, we believe that investing in this sector via a global lens offers a promising chance to diversify away from a US focus and tap into the rich and diverse opportunities the global semiconductor market provides.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is at the forefront of the digital economy, unlocking potentially unique investment opportunities across the value chain. This reach spans from AI itself to the robotics, electric vehicles, clean energy, software, hardware, electronic equipment, interactive media, communication services and consumer discretionary industries and sectors. Moreover, the arrival of emerging and price-efficient AI-model development could trigger a ripple effect that will see product costs decline and, consequently, usage increase. As a result, there may be a further upswing in software usage in areas such as agentic AI, which automates planning and reasoning to simplify and solve challenging logistical problems in multiple industries.

From an investment perspective, we believe a diverse, global portfolio of high conviction, quality companies in these target industries offers an attractive, long-term risk-return profile underpinned by robust fundamentals, significant tailwinds, structural demand growth and earnings visibility.

Outlook: key themes for 2025

Our strategy consists of quality, high-conviction companies diversified by global geography and market cap, rather than concentrating solely on mega-cap or household names in the semiconductor universe. While we have a long-term investment horizon, these are some of the exciting themes we see for 2025 and beyond:

1) Connectivity: With the rise of AI, market headlines tout the increased amount of investment spending and the role of data centers and semiconductor chips. This trend is “connectivity” and it involves a multitude of companies in the chain. In the past, a typical data center consisted of a rack of servers stacked vertically, each connected by a single wire to the top.

For instance, a rack of ten servers would be connected by ten wires. (Chart 4) However, with AI, the setup is evolving. Imagine three racks of servers, side by side. Now, each server not only connects vertically but also needs to connect horizontally to the servers in the adjacent rack. This results in an exponential increase in the number of connections. Consequently, data centers are expanding, and the complexity of these connections is growing. You may even have multiple data centers that need to be interconnected, often requiring underground connections. For AI to function effectively, especially for large language models, everything must be interconnected seamlessly. In the past, if one server was unplugged, the system would continue to operate, much like an office network that remains functional (albeit slower) even if one connection is disrupted. However, with the intricate web of connections required for AI, disconnecting a single server can cause the entire system to fail.

We invest in numerous semiconductor companies that specialize in connectivity. These companies produce the chips that facilitate connections, including semiconductors that enhance signal clarity as data moves from one location to another. Our portfolio includes firms focused on optical and electrical technologies, with optical referring to light-based signals and electrical to electric signals. These innovations are crucial for data transmission, and represent significant, long-term trends that could shape the future of data centers, which differ vastly from their past configurations. We're particularly focused on the theme of connectivity within data centers.

2) Power semiconductors play a crucial role in today's technology landscape, particularly as data centers require vast amounts of energy. For instance, a leading cloud service provider recently signed a 20-year agreement to source nuclear power starting in 2028. It's unprecedented to see most large cloud services providers entering exclusive agreements for nuclear energy, highlighting the critical importance of reliable power sources. Amidst these developments, our focus on connectivity remains a key differentiator in our strategy, aligning with the broader trends shaping the industry. Power management is a major theme that is expected to have a long-lasting impact across various industries and our investments here reflect our commitment to investing in technologies that address the evolving needs of modern infrastructure.

3) Data management: What sets this strategy apart is that it goes beyond semiconductors, with 30% of our portfolio encompassing AI value chain companies. As vast AI clusters or farms are developed, meticulous data management becomes crucial to ensure the safety and security of the data being used.

Nowadays, in the age of GenAI, cyberattacks have become increasingly a threat for data management with identity security risks, machine identities, and third- and fourth-party risks in the digital ecosystems. AI-powered cyberattacks can utilize AI or machine learning algorithms and techniques to streamline, speed up, or enhance different stages of a cyberattack. These cyberattacks can learn and evolve over time, adjusting and adapting to avoid detection. As such, data and password protection have become more vital. Business may also need a way to secure their data, monitor for data risks, and quickly recover data no matter where it lives, thereby building resilience.

We invest in data management software companies that help secure this information. These solutions can scan networks to identify files lacking password protection, ensuring that all data is safeguarded before being processed by AI servers. This protection is ongoing, as new files will continuously be created and added to these servers. We believe that our investment in data management companies is essential to maintaining long-term data security.

Conclusion

WSemiconductors continue to be the cornerstone of our strategy, consistently serving as the most critical theme. At the same time, we capitalize on tactical investment opportunities in companies that benefit from advancements in AI. As AI evolves rapidly, we anticipate a wave of new innovations that will drive sustained demand for both semiconductors and AI applications. Our well-integrated global footprint enables us to leverage a collaborative investment team and an unparalleled internal research network that can allow us to cover the entire opportunity set effectively. We maintain a long-term focus and are poised to use short-term volatility to our advantage, ensuring that our strategy adapts and thrives in this dynamic landscape.

 

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McKinsey on Semiconductors, as of March 2024.

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