17 August 2021
Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist & Head of Macro Strategy

Growing ESG awareness has also influenced the way we study global central banks and their policy decisions. In fact, we have a more dovish view of the future path of policy rates globally than would have been the case because we recognize that many central banks have begun to incorporate the impact of climate change into the way they assess economic growth and risks, and several of them are in the process of transitioning their mandates—formally and informally—to include more equitable growth.⁴ Indeed, all major central banks have been vocal and deliberate in their recognition of these issues. The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, which counts most developed-market central banks as members, has commissioned much in-depth research into ESG issues that we believe will inform central bank thinking going forward. In our view, disregarding this clearly discernable shift among policymakers could risk misreading central bank intentions and lead to overly hawkish macro forecasts.
Climate change can increase financial, credit, and liquidity risk
Climate transition can lead to lost economic growth, potentially through supply-and-demand shocks
Climate change may lead to higher household savings rate, and a higher risk premium may lower the natural rate of interest
Changes in price levels could become more commonplace as climate transition progresses
A growing focus on equitable policies that can benefit households more evenly
Source: The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, Manulife Investment Management, July 1, 2021.
We’ve previously written about how the COVID-19 outbreak could lead to structurally higher fiscal spending, bigger governments, and a much higher level of government bond issuance. It’s no secret that economists have tried and tested ways to integrate higher government spending into our economic outlooks; however, how governments spend their cash and what they spend it on have important implications for growth.
For context, the amount of government spending that’s been earmarked for green investments among developed economies in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented: Roughly half of the Biden administration’s American Jobs Plan will be related to green initiatives,⁵ while 37% of the EU recovery fund is climate friendly.⁶ Crucially, these initiatives are expected to have a higher multiplier effect relative to non-green infrastructure spending.⁷ Higher levels of green government spending are also likely to reduce overall carbon transition costs and lower risks that might dampen growth as a result of climate change. These are important elements that need to be factored into macroeconomic forecasts.
There’s one other key aspect to the green spending narrative that’s relevant to global capital markets: surging demand—and, therefore, an expected ensuing rise in supply—for green sovereign bonds.⁸ Several 2021 European green bond auctions were heavily oversubscribed; these are typically longer maturity bonds with higher yields that have the potential to alter the global government bond landscape.⁹ We broadly expect the green sovereign bond market to become an important part of many countries’ debt management strategies and fiscal construct.
4 “Survey on monetary policy operations and climate change: key lessons for further analyses,” Network of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, December 2020.
5 “Does Biden’s American Jobs Plan Stack Up on Climate and Jobs?” World Resources Institute, April 1, 2021.
6 “Commission welcomes political agreement on Recovery and Resilience Facility,” European Commission, December 18, 2020.
7 “Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers?” International Monetary Fund, March 19, 2021.
8 “Borrowers tap hot ESG demand to sell green bonds at a premium,” Financial Times, April 9, 2021.
9 Bloomberg, as of July 1, 2021.
Fed hikes rates for first time since 2023 as expected
Today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and press conference went smoothly—a welcome development, in our judgment, after the mixed signals that emerged from the Fed’s July meeting. The rate decision: A 25 basis-point (bps) hike, bringing the federal funds rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.
Beyond AI hype: How Manulife Global Multi Asset Diversified Income Fund (GMADI) evaluates long-term equity opportunities
AI continues to create potential investment opportunities, but we believe not every AI-related company will become a long-term winner. Rather than maximising exposure to the theme, the Manulife Global Fund - Global Multi-Asset Diversified Income Fund takes a selective and valuation-aware approach. In this investment note, we discuss the three characteristics we look for when identifying long-term winners and how these principles are reflected in the Fund's equity sleeve which currently maintains a constructive view on sectors such as communication services, healthcare, consumer staples and energy. This positioning reflects our bottom-up conviction in individual businesses whose long-term fundamentals, cash flow characteristics and valuations are viewed favourably by the investment team.
Asia High Yield has reached new highs; what’s next?
Asia High Yield (HY) bonds, known for providing an attractive source of income, present a very different opportunity set today compared to the pre-pandemic era. As discussed in our investment note from nearly a year ago, the asset class is no longer dominated by Chinese Mainland property developers. Instead, it has become more diversified, with investment opportunities spanning multiple areas, such as financial institutions, gaming operators, infrastructure providers, and selected frontier markets.
Fed hikes rates for first time since 2023 as expected
Today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and press conference went smoothly—a welcome development, in our judgment, after the mixed signals that emerged from the Fed’s July meeting. The rate decision: A 25 basis-point (bps) hike, bringing the federal funds rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.
Beyond AI hype: How Manulife Global Multi Asset Diversified Income Fund (GMADI) evaluates long-term equity opportunities
AI continues to create potential investment opportunities, but we believe not every AI-related company will become a long-term winner. Rather than maximising exposure to the theme, the Manulife Global Fund - Global Multi-Asset Diversified Income Fund takes a selective and valuation-aware approach. In this investment note, we discuss the three characteristics we look for when identifying long-term winners and how these principles are reflected in the Fund's equity sleeve which currently maintains a constructive view on sectors such as communication services, healthcare, consumer staples and energy. This positioning reflects our bottom-up conviction in individual businesses whose long-term fundamentals, cash flow characteristics and valuations are viewed favourably by the investment team.
Asia High Yield has reached new highs; what’s next?
Asia High Yield (HY) bonds, known for providing an attractive source of income, present a very different opportunity set today compared to the pre-pandemic era. As discussed in our investment note from nearly a year ago, the asset class is no longer dominated by Chinese Mainland property developers. Instead, it has become more diversified, with investment opportunities spanning multiple areas, such as financial institutions, gaming operators, infrastructure providers, and selected frontier markets.