亞洲（日本除外）股票：波幅加劇，但結構性優勢仍具吸引力(Only the Chinese version is available for now, the English version will be provided shortly)

5/6/2025

新興市場股票投資主管及新興市場股票部聯席主管兼高級組合經理 Charlie Dutton

「波幅加劇」四個字概括了近期市況。在美國最初實施嚴厲的對等關稅後，亞洲股市應聲下跌；其後美國暫緩徵收關稅90天，市場隨之快速反彈。亞洲股市表現反覆，令投資者質疑其未來走勢。在今期投資通訊，環球新興市場股票主管Charlie Dutton認為，儘管預料市場依然極之不明朗，但對長線投資者而言，亞洲股市仍提供具吸引力的結構性及分散投資機會。在市場波動期間，我們認為，主動揀股及強勁的實地研究至為關鍵，有助把握迅速變化的市場機遇。

展望短期市況，我們認為波幅加劇可能仍是股票市場的主要特點。

美國總統特朗普4月初「解放日」公布關稅措施，隨後宣布暫停加徵關稅90天；這項政策變動，加上最近中美兩國達成協議，當中美國將中國進口商品徵收的關稅，由145%下調至30%，為期90天，帶動市場回升。5月28日，美國國際貿易法院裁定對等關稅無效，然而當地司法部對此裁決提出上訴，聯邦上訴法院其後暫時恢復關稅政策，增添更多不明朗因素。

整體而言，上述事態發展反映貿易政策可能急劇變化。

亞洲股市可能受有關政策影響，尤其是因為各個主要經濟體都被美國提出要加徵較高關稅，而且區內市場經濟都對貿易有一定依賴。儘管如此，綜觀現時的關稅政策，多項因素使我們保持審慎樂觀：

有顯著比例的亞洲出口商品符合現時特朗普政府釐定的豁免條件，意味著對等關稅將不適用於所有出口商品。即是某些部份情況下，對個別亞洲出口商而言，不會涵蓋其大部份商品。
初步報告顯示，部份亞洲貿易夥伴已主動與美國展開關稅談判，並獲得白宮正面回應。雖然並非所有談判都能取得成果，但我們認為，這可見區內貿易夥伴在確保經濟往來方面態度積極，並高度重視有關問題。
除了近日中美達成協議外，美國財政部長亦公開表示，南韓和台灣已提交「非常好的方案」；泰國的建議「非常有力」；印尼則與美國貿易代表簽署保密協議，從而展開談判。

短期而言，不明朗因素及政策變動料將持續。然而，我們認為長線投資者應從宏觀及「由下而上」的角度，聚焦於亞洲股票的結構性基礎，以及區內市場多元分散結構的優勢。

區內長期增長主題維持不變

儘管經濟環境面對挑戰，但亞洲的增長主題大致維持不變，尤其是相對基礎下更為明顯。

最終的關稅談判結果未明，已促使企業削減非必要開支。這可能導致環球經濟增長在2025年下半年放緩。這是投資者作出投資決策及建構投資組合時重要的考慮因素。

環球增長可能略為放緩，但我們認為亞洲穩佔優勢，有能力應對當前挑戰，並吸引資金流入區內市場。

國際貨幣基金組織雖然已調低2025年環球經濟增長預測，但仍估計亞洲將成為2025年至2026年增長最迅速的地區。

中國和印度作為區內兩大增長引擎，很可能推動本輪經濟擴張：

面對美國關稅帶來的重大挑戰和嚴格審查，中國的增長模式逐漸演變。

事實上，美國在2018年首次宣布徵收關稅時，促使中國政府透過強而有力的工業政策，優先推動關鍵產業本地化，尤其是科技業。目前，由人工智能（帶動近期市場升勢）以至半導體及生物科技等多個行業已見成果。

此外，中國政府的刺激經濟措施已轉向提振消費，因此向來偏低的財政赤字在3月增加至佔國內生產總值約4%。為此，中國政府在2025年財政預算把債券淨發行額度提高3萬億元人民幣。

在成功推行耐用品以舊換新等促進消費政策的基礎上，全國人民代表大會推出多項措施，透過育兒及教育補貼，提高民眾的可動用收入。

最後，中國的出口表現料保持強韌，因為中國已將其貿易夥伴拓展至美國以外的地區。輸往美國商品佔中國總出口比率，已由2017年的19%跌至2023年的14.8%。與此同時，東盟已成為中國出口的主要市場。
儘管印度面對短期周期性挑戰的同時，美國宣布對大部份主要貿易夥伴徵收關稅，導致全球經濟增長放緩，都可能間接影響印度的增長表現。不過，印度的長期增長主題維持不變。

印度政策官員可透過貨幣及財政政策，抵銷部份衝擊。印度政府在最新的國家預算案中，大幅削減個人所得稅，將有助提高中上階層家庭的可動用收入，從而帶動內需。

此外，印度亦有望受惠於整體對等關稅稅率（26%）低於區內市場、與美國持續進行談判，以及經濟對貿易的依賴程度減少。

貿易佔印度國內生產總值約12%，而輸往美國的商品出口僅佔約2%。因此，關稅對印度的商品貿易的影響有限。資訊科技服務作為印度其中一項對美國的主要出口項目，目前則不受關稅影響。

長遠而言，我們相信印度別具優勢。從近期多家美國企業的公布可見，印度將繼續吸引尋求在亞洲製造產能的跨國企業。此外，印度政府亦致力促進私人消費，因其佔當地國內生產總值約65%。

通脹放緩趨勢及美元走弱，利好亞洲市場

有別於許多已發展市場，亞洲通脹水平在過去三年持續下降（圖1）。

圖1：亞洲通脹放緩¹

亞洲（中國除外），整體及核心通脹已放緩

Disinflation in Asia

資料來源：Haver, 摩根士丹利研究

通脹放緩，加上美元走弱，預期可使區內央行開始或繼續減息（圖2），其中許多央行的減息空間充裕。

圖2：亞洲央行利率²

Regional central bank rates

資料來源：Haver, 摩根士丹利研究預測

減息雖為中印兩國帶來另一項利好因素（兩者均受惠於減息及流動性增加），但對東盟經濟體的影響可能更大。隨著90天關稅寬限期結束，許多東盟市場可能於7月面臨更高的對等關稅，而且這些市場較依賴本土消費，應可受惠於較低息環境。

區內市場提供大量分散投資機會

基於亞洲區內市場的經濟模式和行業多樣化，亞洲股票可為投資者（尤其是已發展市場股票投資者）提供潛在的分散投資機會（圖3）。

部份主要投資領域包括：在台灣地區和南韓發展蓬勃的創新資訊科技公司；在中國內地，科技供應本土化趨勢及內需提供的機遇。即使在東盟地區，由於主要動力各異，區內市場的相關性偏低。印度的增長主題建基於經濟持續數碼化，而且廣泛覆蓋不同行業。

作為亞洲金融樞紐之一，新加坡的銀行和財富管理業投資機會成為市場焦點，而新興東盟市場則潛藏天然資源、醫療旅遊及消費機遇。

圖3： MSCI明晟亞洲市場與環球和地區的相關性³

Global and regional correlations - MSCI Asian markets

資料來源：FactSet, MSCI明晟, 高盛研究

儘管市場潛藏機遇，但透過在地分析員進行嚴謹的「由下而上」研究，才能準確識別投資良機。由於不少機會集中於流動性較低的中小型公司，分析員往往需要進行深入的盡職審查和公司訪談。

宏利投資管理的業務遍布亞洲10個主要市場，聘有超過80名股票投資專家，把握區內市場的結構優勢。

投資者不容忽視的市場發展

當前變化迅速的市場環境下，我們認為投資者於2025年餘下時間，宜密切關注亞洲股市的以下兩項發展。

盈利前景不明朗：鑑於美國關稅政策仍存在變數，企業就2025年及其後的盈利預測提供的指引有限，甚至並無提供指引。由於市況不明朗的趨勢料將持續，企業公布盈喜或盈警的機率均甚高，可能導致市場波幅加劇，繼而帶來投資機遇。

下行風險仍在：環球市場在「解放日」後急挫，但至今已大致收復失地。以目前的估值水平而言，市場沒有太多空間承受進一步的衝擊。

下載全份文件

1 資料來源：摩根士丹利研究。

2資料來源：摩根士丹利研究。

3 資料來源：高盛研究。

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Manulife Hong Kong Series

Manulife Hong Kong Series (“the Series”) is an open-ended unit trust comprising a number of funds primarily investing in equities, debt securities, exchange-traded funds and/or collective investment schemes, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
Certain funds may involve equity market, emerging markets, Dim Sum bond market, concentration, volatility, liquidity, credit, credit ratings, below investment grade and unrated securities, credit rating downgrading, interest rates, valuation, sovereign debt, unlisted debt securities, political and regulatory, currency, foreign exchange, derivative and structured product, hedging, and distribution risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class..
Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
Certain fund is subject to the risks relating to investment in exchange traded funds, Strategic and Tactical Asset Rebalancing Strategy (“STARS”), small- and mid-capped companies, convertible bonds and the risks associated with securitised debt instruments and investments in loss-absorption features. Certain fund is a feeder fund that invests all or substantially all of its assets in another collective investment scheme (the “master fund”) and is therefore subject to the risks of investing in the master fund.
Certain fund will not have direct investments other than cash, cash equivalents and financial derivative instruments (such as futures, options and forwards).
Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.

General Risk Disclosure

Funds offered on this platform may invest in equity, fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds, collective investment schemes and/or other instruments, including derivatives, and each of which has its specific investment objective/ policy with its specific features and different risk profile.
Distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends are not guaranteed. Dividend of certain share/unit classes, at the fund or the investment manager’s discretion, may be paid out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share/unit of the respective share/unit classes after the distribution date.
Some funds may invest in bonds or debt securities which may be subject to credit, liquidity, counterparty and market risks.
Some funds may invest in non-investment grade bonds and unrated securities which may be subject to greater credit and liquidity risks, and may be more volatile than higher rated securities. Some funds may invest in investment grade debt securities, which may be subject to ratings downgrades by the rating agencies that may affect the net asset value of the fund.
Some funds may invest in derivative instruments which may involve additional risks. (For example, leverage may cause greater volatility.)
Some funds may make extensive use of derivatives including more complex derivative instruments or strategies to achieve the investment objective, this may give rise to additional exposure in that performance may rise or fall more than it would have done otherwise. In adverse situations, the fund’s use of derivative instruments may become ineffective and the fund may suffer significant losses. The use of derivatives may give rise to leverage, liquidity, counterparty and valuation risks.
Some funds may invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Some funds may invest in securities of small and/or medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Some funds may invest in a single country/region and/or a particular industry sector which may be concentrated and subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Some funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via the Stock Connect, which may involve risks related to investments via the Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Some funds may have significant exposure to Renminbi ("RMB") bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, which will be subject to debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more established markets.
Some funds with significant exposure to RMB bonds/equity/assets may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments to invest in. This may adversely affect the funds’ return and performance.
Some funds using Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (“QFII”) quota to invest directly in debt instruments/shares in Mainland China may be subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to QFII investment and custodial risks.
Some funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds with substantial RMB exposure may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
Some funds’ performance will be closely tied to the economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, market, currency or other conditions in the European Economic Area and may be subject to increased liquidity, price, and foreign exchange risk.
Some funds may invest in Russia and some investments in Russian securities may be unlisted securities not dealt on a regulated market. The Russian market presents specific risks in relation to the settlement and safekeeping of securities.
Investment involves risk. Investors may expose to capital loss and should not invest solely based on the information on this website alone and should read the offering documents for details including the associated risk factors, charges and features of the funds and their share/unit classes. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance.

Manulife Global Fund

Manulife Global Fund is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing in equity and/or fixed income securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk profile and may involve equity market, geographical concentration, sovereign debt, liquidity, volatility, credit downgrade, interest rate, counterparty risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class.
The relevant distributing class of the sub-funds does not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of income, realized capital gains and/or out of capital of certain sub-funds in respect of Inc share class(es). Dividends may be paid out of realized capital gains, capital and/or gross income while charging all or part of their fees and expenses to capital (i.e. payment of fees and expenses out of capital) in respect of MDIST (G), R MDIST (G) and F MDIST (G) share class(es). Dividends paid out of capital of these sub-funds amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of the amount of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value per share in respect of such class(es) of the sub-funds. Fixed yield share classes pay out a pre-determined annualized fixed percentage of their NAV, which can be adjusted by the Directors with at least one month’s prior notice, do not entirely reflect the actual or expected income or performance of the Fund. These distributions may exceed the actual income, leading to capital erosion, especially during negative returns or losses, and may reduce future capital growth. A positive distribution yield does not guarantee a positive return, and the absolute distributions vary with the NAV, resulting in fluctuating monthly payouts for investors.
Certain sub-funds invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose their investors to capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds and their share classes.
Each sub-fund intends to use financial derivative instruments (“FDIs”) for investment, efficient portfolio management and/or hedging purposes. The use of FDIs exposes the Fund to additional risks, including counterparty/credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk.
Given RMB is currently not a freely convertible currency, payment of redemptions and/or dividend payment in RMB may be delayed due to the exchange controls and restrictions applicable to RMB. As offshore RMB (CNH) will be used for the valuation of RMB denominated Class(es), CNH rate may be at a premium or discount to the exchange rate for onshore RMB (CNY) and there may be significant bid and offer spreads and thus the value of the RMB denominated Class(es) will be subject to fluctuation. Any devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated Class(es) of certain sub-funds.

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing primarily in equity and bond securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in. This may adversely affect its return and performance.
Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Bond Market and custodial risks.
RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose to a high risk of capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds.

Manulife Hong Kong Series

Manulife Hong Kong Series (“the Series”) is an open-ended unit trust comprising a number of funds primarily investing in equities, debt securities, exchange-traded funds and/or collective investment schemes, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
Certain funds may involve equity market, emerging markets, Dim Sum bond market, concentration, volatility, liquidity, credit, credit ratings, below investment grade and unrated securities, credit rating downgrading, interest rates, valuation, sovereign debt, unlisted debt securities, political and regulatory, currency, foreign exchange, derivative and structured product, hedging, and distribution risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class..
Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
Certain fund is subject to the risks relating to investment in exchange traded funds, Strategic and Tactical Asset Rebalancing Strategy (“STARS”), small- and mid-capped companies, convertible bonds and the risks associated with securitised debt instruments and investments in loss-absorption features. Certain fund is a feeder fund that invests all or substantially all of its assets in another collective investment scheme (the “master fund”) and is therefore subject to the risks of investing in the master fund.
Certain fund will not have direct investments other than cash, cash equivalents and financial derivative instruments (such as futures, options and forwards).
Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.