19 January 2026
The global semiconductor industry remains strong – arguably the most robust we have seen in over three decades. This strength is supported by cutting-edge innovation, rising revenues and robust capital spending. While risks remain, the outlook for 2026 appears constructive, with demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications showing few signs of slowing. Beyond AI, the non-AI markets could be poised for positive revisions as cyclical recovery gains traction after several years of consolidation.
The semiconductor market is valued at over US$500 billion1 and is projected to surpass US$1 trillion by 20302. Growth is being fuelled primarily by AI, especially in data centres, alongside accelerating demand from automotive and industrial sectors. Regionally, the focus is on Asia Pacific, which has the largest market share.
While fluid as more companies update their plans, capital expenditure among major data-centre hyperscalers is forecast to rise 30% in 2026 and 15% in 20273, supported by strong free cash flow generation, healthy earnings and favourable returns on investment (ROI). This trend suggests continued momentum for the industry.
The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) experienced sharp declines in April 2025 following tariff-related uncertainty, but the recovery was swift. Historically, when the SOX bottoms, it has outperformed the S&P 500 over one- and two-year periods – a pattern worth noting for long-term investors4.
Current “weather outlook” for semiconductors and AI-related industries
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For illustrative purposes only.
AI-driven demand is broad-based and shows little sign of slowing, even as we stay mindful of risks such as supply-chain constraints and evolving regulations.
We also continue to see multi-year tailwinds for AI beneficiaries outside of the semiconductor space. Within advertising, AI is being leveraged to expand monetization and create more efficient campaigns. Hyperscale companies report record backlogs as enterprises sign larger and longer deals to support internal AI efforts. Consumer applications like ChatGPT and Gemini should continue to see more usage, while enterprise use-cases should help to push ROI even higher in 2026 and beyond. More broadly, AI is expected to drive an explosion of data over the next decade, driving demand for solutions to manage data in a secure way. Overall, we see increasing opportunities for AI beneficiaries as the technology proliferates further into day-to-day life.
While we believe the outlook for the semiconductor and AI beneficiary industries remains positive, several challenges warrant attention:
Power management
Data centres consume vast energy, raising efficiency concerns. AI generates large datasets, requiring robust safeguards for data security. Moreover, rapid factory expansion in lightly regulated regions could pose sustainability issues.
Debt capital
We expect an increase in debt issuance to finance capital spending through 2026. While overall leverage remains reasonable, and we do not anticipate significant changes, we continue to monitor developments.
Trade tensions
Recent signs of easing between the US and China are encouraging. Our globally diversified exposure provides flexibility to adjust allocations should conditions change.
While global growth concerns and geopolitical risks remain on the radar, they key uncertainty heading into 2026 could be investor sentiment toward semiconductors if AI momentum slows. That said, we expect company fundamentals to stay resilient throughout the year. Our long-term view remains constructive on the extended semiconductor industry and on sectors benefitting from AI adoption.
1 Source: Bloomberg, NXP Semiconductor company reports, and Manulife Investment Management, data as of November 2025.
2 Source: Bloomberg, NXP Semiconductor company reports, and Manulife Investment Management, data as of November 2025.
3 Source: Hyperscale capital expenditure forecasts; FactSet and Manulife Investment Management, data as of November 2025.
4 Source: SOX historical outperformance before and after major declines; SOX outperformance relative to S&P 500; Manulife Investment Management and FactSet Research Systems, data as of November 2025.
2026 年前景展望系列:環球股票多元入息
展望2026年,主導股市上升的動力可能擴展至超大型科技股以外領域,為不同行業及地區創造投資機遇。受惠於主要市場的財政開支及寬鬆貨幣政策,預期環球經濟增長將趨於穩定。歐洲及個別亞洲經濟體的估值具吸引力,而且基本因素持續改善,與美國市場的韌性相輔相成。在良好基本因素支持下,除了增長型投資風格外,以價值和收益為本的策略或再度成為焦點。環球股票多元入息策略致力把握機遇,分散投資於不同地區、行業和風格,旨在爭取收益及資本增值。
2026年前景展望系列:偏重公用事業優先證券 — 在減息周期下穩中求進
踏入2026年,在基本因素強勁及宏觀趨勢利好的支持下,優先證券仍是吸引的資產類別。在各行業的優先證券當中,以公用事業最為優秀,可作為核心配置,因其受惠於結構性增長動力(例如人工智能推動的能源需求)、寬鬆貨幣政策,並在潛在市場不明朗因素下展現防守特質。
2026年前景展望系列:大中華股票
科技突破、本地化需求、企業「走出去」需求,以及盈利增長預期上調,均帶動大中華股票市場在 2025 年初至今錄得強勁升幅。展望 2026 年,我們重申看好大中華股票市場的觀點,因為相信中國內地及台灣地區將穩佔優勢,可望推動優質增長邁向更高水平。
2026 年前景展望系列:環球股票多元入息
展望2026年,主導股市上升的動力可能擴展至超大型科技股以外領域,為不同行業及地區創造投資機遇。受惠於主要市場的財政開支及寬鬆貨幣政策,預期環球經濟增長將趨於穩定。歐洲及個別亞洲經濟體的估值具吸引力,而且基本因素持續改善,與美國市場的韌性相輔相成。在良好基本因素支持下,除了增長型投資風格外,以價值和收益為本的策略或再度成為焦點。環球股票多元入息策略致力把握機遇,分散投資於不同地區、行業和風格,旨在爭取收益及資本增值。
2026年前景展望系列:偏重公用事業優先證券 — 在減息周期下穩中求進
踏入2026年,在基本因素強勁及宏觀趨勢利好的支持下,優先證券仍是吸引的資產類別。在各行業的優先證券當中,以公用事業最為優秀,可作為核心配置,因其受惠於結構性增長動力(例如人工智能推動的能源需求)、寬鬆貨幣政策,並在潛在市場不明朗因素下展現防守特質。
2026年前景展望系列:大中華股票
科技突破、本地化需求、企業「走出去」需求,以及盈利增長預期上調,均帶動大中華股票市場在 2025 年初至今錄得強勁升幅。展望 2026 年,我們重申看好大中華股票市場的觀點,因為相信中國內地及台灣地區將穩佔優勢,可望推動優質增長邁向更高水平。