Skip to main content
Back

Manulife InvestChoice – 2023 Q3 Global Macro Outlook

July 2023

Key takeaways

  • Recession postponed, not canceled—Despite the aggressive policy tightening we’ve seen so far, economic activity in developed economies proved to be more resilient than expected amid a strong rebound in the services sector.
  • Inflation is still too sticky at uncomfortable levels—While headline inflation is easing, core inflation remains stubbornly high, and it isn’t just due to services inflation: Goods inflation is inflecting higher after a period of decline.
  • We believe central bank policy easing will be more gradual than consensus expectations—From the Bank of Canada to the Reserve Bank of Australia to Bank Negara Malaysia to the U.S. Federal Reserve, central banks around the world are proving to be more hawkish than expected.
  • Shifting geopolitics and the need for a new markets playbook—There are signs that we’re entering a new global regime, requiring a rethink of how risk assets respond to changes in the macro backdrop.

 

The magnitude of tightening in both monetary policy and lending standards strongly suggests that we’ll see recessionary conditions in the United States. What’s considerably less clear is when we’ll see them.

 

Nascent signs of slack are showing up in the labor market, but conditions are still tight. This dynamic is supportive of consumption, which represents about 70% of U.S. GDP, and would potentially extend the business cycle; without weakening economic growth and employment, there’s no incentive for the Fed to begin easing.

 

The employment picture is also central to what the Fed would do going forward in another way: Over the medium term, a tight labor market is typically associated with persistent strength in wage inflation. This trend is likely to add to inflationary pressures, supporting the view that incremental policy tightening by the Fed could be needed and that there could be a longer pause at peak rates than the bond markets are pricing in.

 

Despite falling price pressures, central banks in the region have been surprising the market with their hawkishness. Bank Negara Malaysia raised interest rates by a further 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%. Since pausing in April, the Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked at its two subsequent meetings for a total of 50bps, bringing rates to 4.10%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered hawkish pauses at 3.5% and 6.5%, respectively, pushing back against the possibility of early interest-rate cuts, and the Bank of Thailand hiked its policy rate by 25bps to 2.00%, judging that further policy normalization is still appropriate.

 

We had anticipated that slowing growth and inflationary pressures would open the door for many of the region’s central banks to bring their tightening cycles to a close. Our observation, however, is subject to the condition that core inflation, which is a better measure of underlying price pressures, is declining in a reasonable timeframe. So far, data shows that core inflation is easing very slowly and remains well above average in almost every economy in the region. Recent developments indicate that the anticipated timing of dovish pivots has been delayed.

 

The pervasive sense of optimism around the market outlook for Europe earlier in the year has faded along with dimming prospects for global growth. This is due in part to a more muted-than-hoped-for Chinese reopening, which has affected global trade—a problematic development for Europe given the Continent’s relative exposure to manufacturing production and trade.

Inflation also remains a challenge: Headline figures are improving, but wage negotiations whose outcomes could have lingering effects on inflationary pressure remain a point of concern. Against this unappealing backdrop, it would appear as though the ECB is cornered into keeping policy rates higher for longer even as it ramps up quantitative tightening.

Far right wins in local elections in Spain have triggered a national election in July, which could raise investor concerns. One source of support to growth could come from Germany, where the payment of inflation bonuses from June 2023 could provide a short-term boost to consumption.

 

Disclaimer – Quarterly Macro Outlook

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline or other expectations are only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and if they were to occur, the result may be significantly different than that shown here. 

Manulife Investment Management is the global wealth and asset management segment of Manulife Financial Corporation. The information and/or analysis contained in this material have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or the information and/or analysis contained herein. Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein.

This material was prepared solely for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer, solicitation or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. The economic trend analysis expressed in this material does not indicate any future investment performance result.   This material was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Manulife Investment Management as of the date of this publication, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Investment involves risk, including the loss of principal. In considering any investment, if you are in doubt on the action to be taken, you should consult professional advisers.

Proprietary Information – Please note that this material must not be wholly or partially reproduced, distributed, circulated, disseminated, published or disclosed, in any form and for any purpose, to any third party without prior approval from Manulife Investment Management.

This material is issued by Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. This material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).