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US interest-rate cut

20 September, 2019 

Frances Donold, Chief Economist, Head of Macroeconomic Strategy
 

Wednesday’s US interest-rate cut represents a continuation of the global easing cycle. Our Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic Strategy Frances Donald takes a magnifying glass to the proceedings and identifies the key themes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed)communications and the problems that the central bank is facing.

 

The Fed delivered a 25 basis points (bps) interest-rate cut, a 30bps cut to its interest on excess reserves. Following Wednesday’s communications from the Fed, we believe that:

  1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is more dovish than the rest of the FOMC, but the hawkish members of the committee are slowing the Fed’s reaction to economic developments, which increases the likelihood of a policy mistake. 
  2. A further rate cut in October is a reasonable base case, but this is contingent on trade policy developments (the markets are currently pricing a 43% chance of another rate cut in October).1
  3. The Fed is likely going to have to restart an organic balance sheet growth before year end.  

Critically, we believe there could be more rate cuts in the next 12 months that markets have yet to fully price in. In other words, we expect the Fed will need to move more aggressively in the future in order to play catch-up—particularly as we see a growing list of issues confronting the US economy. 

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Problem 1: the trade war is hurting the US growth outlook more than most—including us—had initially expected 

Geopolitical tensions might have eased in the past two weeks, but they remain substantially more elevated today than they were on 31 July. Critically, US companies are facing more tariffs than at July’s FOMC meeting. Moreover, the US manufacturing outlook continues to deteriorate. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s estimate of Q3 GDP currently stands at around 1.6%, and it expects growth to slow to 1.1% in Q4.2 We agree with that assessment and believe that first-quarter growth next year could come in between 1.0% and 1.5%— hardly a stellar growth figure by any means. 

Problem 2: geopolitical risks are amplified 

Hong Kong protests, Brexit, Argentina, and the threat of a global oil supply disruption—recent headlines relating to these events suggest markets might have underpriced risk. Notably, barring the drone attack on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, which has only just happened, tensions around these events have intensified since the last Fed meeting. 

Problem 3: those pesky yield curves

Every major part of the US Treasury’s yield curve has now tipped into inversion. Even if some segments of the yield curve have recently bounced back into positive territory (such as the 2-year and 10-year),1 the elevated recession probabilities associated with the first inversion remain worrying. Moreover, the yield curve has now been inverted for longer than the periods during which it provided socalled false signals about an impending recession (Chart 1). While there are reasons to believe that the yield curve is distorted due to a compromised term premium, the Fed has historically misjudged the damage created by an inverted curve, and we don’t expect it to be comfortable with this level of inversion. 

Problem 4: a strong US dollar hurts growth

The Fed has been clear that it isn’t targeting the US dollar (USD), but it’s safe to say that the central bank has incorporated the value of the tradeweighted dollar into its analysis for the following reasons. A strong USD:

  1. Is mechanically deflationary
  2. Hampers US profits/business investment
  3. Represents a form of tightening of global financial conditions 

The Fed’s past analysis has suggested that a 10% appreciation in the real trade-weighted dollar could cut US GDP by 0.5 percentage points. 3 With that in mind, we can’t help but notice that, on a tradeweighted basis, the greenback has gained 9% since the beginning of 2018.

Problem 5: inflation expectations are still struggling

Realised inflation has improved in the past three months: The three-month annualised core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is nearing 2.0%.1 That should be good news, except that longer-term inflation expectations—the ones that drive the Fed’s forward-looking model—remain very weak. If the Fed wants the yield curve to steepen, it needs to convince markets that its actions will lead to higher inflation over time; a higher level of inflation at this juncture that’s accompanied by depressed long - term inflation expectations can only produce a flatter yield curve (and, more than likely, hurt central bank credibility).

Problem 6: stagflation risks are rising

Recent upside surprises in inflation might be thought of as positive news, but they’re occurring in an environment of weakening growth. An analysis of previous periods of stagflation shows that equities typically fare badly in an environment defined by slower growth and higher inflation— in other words, stagflation (Chart 2). In our view, stagflation is primarily a fourth quarter problem, with higher inflation in part being driven, in the short run at least, by tariffs that will drop out over time. Similarly, the subsequent demand-side shock associated with tariffs will also ultimately be deflationary over the medium term. 

Given that the Fed has undershot its 2.0% inflation target for almost the entire duration of the current economic cycle, we expect it to prioritise growth concerns over inflation fears, at least for the time being. What this means: Hitting the inflation target should not, in our view, deter the Fed from introducing more interest-rate cuts.

Problem 7: job growth is decelerating

The US added 130,000 jobs in August—a reasonable number by most accounts, but it’s clear that the momentum behind job growth is slowing. Some commentators view it as a reflection of having too few people in the labour market, as opposed to having too few jobs; in other words, they believe that we’re simply running out of people to hire. The problem with this narrative is that job openings are also decelerating. The stagnation of wage growth around the 3.2% level also suggests the slowdown is likely to be more related to a slowing demand for workers. 

What’s not a problem: the US consumer 

There’s one shining light in the US growth picture, and it continues to be the US consumer: Consumer confidence is near historic highs, and retail sales have re-accelerated. Representing around twothirds of the economy, it’s tempting to say a strong consumer will help us overcome all of the above problems—it’s an attractive idea, except that consumer spending is a lagging indicator and has consistently performed well shortly before recessions. 

While we aren’t calling for a recession, we’re inclined to put more weight on the issues we’ve listed so far than US household spending for now. We hope the Fed will do the same. 

Chart 1: Length of yield curve inversion before a recession (months)

Source: Bloomberg, Manulife Investment Management, as of 9 September, 2019.

Chart 2: How asset classes fare during different periods of economic performance

Source: Citi, as of 16 September, 2019. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1  Bloomberg, as of 17 September, 2019.

2 “Nowcasting Report,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as of 13 September, 2019.

3 “The Effect of the Strong Dollar on US Growth,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 17 July, 2015. 

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  • Funds offered on this platform may invest in equity, fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds, collective investment schemes and/or other instruments, including derivatives, and each of which has its specific investment objective/ policy with its specific features and different risk profile.
  • Distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends are not guaranteed. Dividend of certain share/unit classes, at the fund or the investment manager’s discretion, may be paid out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share/unit of the respective share/unit classes after the distribution date.
  • Some funds may invest in bonds or debt securities which may be subject to credit, liquidity, counterparty and market risks.
  • Some funds may invest in non-investment grade bonds and unrated securities which may be subject to greater credit and liquidity risks, and may be more volatile than higher rated securities. Some funds may invest in investment grade debt securities, which may be subject to ratings downgrades by the rating agencies that may affect the net asset value of the fund.
  • Some funds may invest in derivative instruments which may involve additional risks. (For example, leverage may cause greater volatility.)
  • Some funds may make extensive use of derivatives including more complex derivative instruments or strategies to achieve the investment objective, this may give rise to additional exposure in that performance may rise or fall more than it would have done otherwise. In adverse situations, the fund’s use of derivative instruments may become ineffective and the fund may suffer significant losses. The use of derivatives may give rise to leverage, liquidity, counterparty and valuation risks.
  • Some funds may invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
  • Some funds may invest in securities of small and/or medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
  • Some funds may invest in a single country/region and/or a particular industry sector which may be concentrated and subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
  • Some funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via the Stock Connect, which may involve risks related to investments via the Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
  • Some funds may have significant exposure to Renminbi ("RMB") bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, which will be subject to debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more established markets.
  • Some funds with significant exposure to RMB bonds/equity/assets may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments to invest in. This may adversely affect the funds’ return and performance.
  • Some funds using Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (“QFII”) quota to invest directly in debt instruments/shares in Mainland China may be subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to QFII investment and custodial risks.
  • Some funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
  • As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds with substantial RMB exposure may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
  • Some funds’ performance will be closely tied to the economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, market, currency or other conditions in the European Economic Area and may be subject to increased liquidity, price, and foreign exchange risk.
  • Some funds may invest in Russia and some investments in Russian securities may be unlisted securities not dealt on a regulated market. The Russian market presents specific risks in relation to the settlement and safekeeping of securities.
  • Investment involves risk. Investors may expose to capital loss and should not invest solely based on the information on this website alone and should read the offering documents for details including the associated risk factors, charges and features of the funds and their share/unit classes. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance.


Manulife Global Fund

  • Manulife Global Fund is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing in equity and/or fixed income securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk profile and may involve equity market,  geographical concentration, sovereign debt, liquidity, volatility, credit downgrade, interest rate, counterparty risks. 
  • The relevant distributing class of the sub-funds does not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of income, realized capital gains and/or out of capital of certain sub-funds in respect of Inc share class(es). Dividends may be paid out of realized capital gains, capital and/or gross income while charging all or part of their fees and expenses to capital (i.e. payment of fees and expenses out of capital) in respect of MDIST (G) and R MDIST (G) share class(es).  Dividends paid out of capital of these sub-funds amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of the amount of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value per share in respect of such class(es) of the sub-funds.
  • Certain sub-funds invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
  • Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
  • Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
  • Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
  • Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose their investors to capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds and their share classes.
  • Each sub-fund intends to use financial derivative instruments (“FDIs”) for investment, efficient portfolio management and/or hedging purposes.  The use of FDIs exposes the Fund to additional risks, including counterparty/credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk. 
  • Given RMB is currently not a freely convertible currency,  payment of redemptions and/or dividend payment in RMB may be delayed due to the exchange controls and restrictions applicable to RMB. As offshore RMB (CNH) will be used for the valuation of RMB denominated Class(es), CNH rate may be at a premium or discount to the exchange rate for onshore RMB (CNY) and there may be significant bid and offer spreads and thus the value of the RMB denominated Class(es) will be subject to fluctuation.  Any devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated Class(es) of certain sub-funds.


Manulife Advanced Fund SPC

  • Manulife Advanced Fund SPC is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing primarily in equity and bond securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
  • The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
  • Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
  • A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in.  This may adversely affect its return and performance.
  • Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Market and custodial risks.
  • RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
  • Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
  • Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
  • Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose to a high risk of capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds.


Manulife Hong Kong Series

  • Manulife Hong Kong Series (“the Series”) is an open-ended unit trust comprising a number of funds primarily investing in equities, debt securities, exchange-traded funds and/or collective investment schemes, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
  • The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
  • Certain funds may involve equity market, emerging markets, Dim Sum bond market, concentration, volatility, liquidity, credit, credit ratings, below investment grade and unrated securities, credit rating downgrading, interest rates, valuation, sovereign debt, unlisted debt securities, political and regulatory, currency, foreign exchange, derivative and structured product, hedging, and distribution risks.
  • Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
  • Certain fund is subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to investment in exchange traded funds, Strategic and Tactical Asset Rebalancing Strategy (“STARS”), small- and mid-capped companies, convertible bonds and the risks associated with securitised debt instruments and investments in loss-absorption features. Certain fund is a feeder fund that invests all or substantially all of its assets in another collective investment scheme (the “master fund”) and is therefore subject to the risks of investing in the master fund.
  • As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls, and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
  • Certain fund will not have direct investments other than cash, cash equivalents and financial derivative instruments (such as futures, options and forwards).
  • Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.

 General Risk Disclosure
 

  • Funds offered on this platform may invest in equity, fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds, collective investment schemes and/or other instruments, including derivatives, and each of which has its specific investment objective/ policy with its specific features and different risk profile.
  • Distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends are not guaranteed. Dividend of certain share/unit classes, at the fund or the investment manager’s discretion, may be paid out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share/unit of the respective share/unit classes after the distribution date.
  • Some funds may invest in bonds or debt securities which may be subject to credit, liquidity, counterparty and market risks.
  • Some funds may invest in non-investment grade bonds and unrated securities which may be subject to greater credit and liquidity risks, and may be more volatile than higher rated securities. Some funds may invest in investment grade debt securities, which may be subject to ratings downgrades by the rating agencies that may affect the net asset value of the fund.
  • Some funds may invest in derivative instruments which may involve additional risks. (For example, leverage may cause greater volatility.)
  • Some funds may make extensive use of derivatives including more complex derivative instruments or strategies to achieve the investment objective, this may give rise to additional exposure in that performance may rise or fall more than it would have done otherwise. In adverse situations, the fund’s use of derivative instruments may become ineffective and the fund may suffer significant losses. The use of derivatives may give rise to leverage, liquidity, counterparty and valuation risks.
  • Some funds may invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
  • Some funds may invest in securities of small and/or medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
  • Some funds may invest in a single country/region and/or a particular industry sector which may be concentrated and subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
  • Some funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via the Stock Connect, which may involve risks related to investments via the Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
  • Some funds may have significant exposure to Renminbi ("RMB") bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, which will be subject to debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more established markets.
  • Some funds with significant exposure to RMB bonds/equity/assets may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments to invest in. This may adversely affect the funds’ return and performance.
  • Some funds using Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (“QFII”) quota to invest directly in debt instruments/shares in Mainland China may be subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to QFII investment and custodial risks.
  • Some funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
  • As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds with substantial RMB exposure may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
  • Some funds’ performance will be closely tied to the economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, market, currency or other conditions in the European Economic Area and may be subject to increased liquidity, price, and foreign exchange risk.
  • Some funds may invest in Russia and some investments in Russian securities may be unlisted securities not dealt on a regulated market. The Russian market presents specific risks in relation to the settlement and safekeeping of securities.
  • Investment involves risk. Investors may expose to capital loss and should not invest solely based on the information on this website alone and should read the offering documents for details including the associated risk factors, charges and features of the funds and their share/unit classes. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance.


Manulife Global Fund

  • Manulife Global Fund is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing in equity and/or fixed income securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk profile and may involve equity market,  geographical concentration, sovereign debt, liquidity, volatility, credit downgrade, interest rate, counterparty risks. 
  • The relevant distributing class of the sub-funds does not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of income, realized capital gains and/or out of capital of certain sub-funds in respect of Inc share class(es). Dividends may be paid out of realized capital gains, capital and/or gross income while charging all or part of their fees and expenses to capital (i.e. payment of fees and expenses out of capital) in respect of MDIST (G) and R MDIST (G) share class(es).  Dividends paid out of capital of these sub-funds amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of the amount of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value per share in respect of such class(es) of the sub-funds.
  • Certain sub-funds invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
  • Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
  • Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
  • Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
  • Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose their investors to capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds and their share classes.
  • Each sub-fund intends to use financial derivative instruments (“FDIs”) for investment, efficient portfolio management and/or hedging purposes.  The use of FDIs exposes the Fund to additional risks, including counterparty/credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk. 
  • Given RMB is currently not a freely convertible currency,  payment of redemptions and/or dividend payment in RMB may be delayed due to the exchange controls and restrictions applicable to RMB. As offshore RMB (CNH) will be used for the valuation of RMB denominated Class(es), CNH rate may be at a premium or discount to the exchange rate for onshore RMB (CNY) and there may be significant bid and offer spreads and thus the value of the RMB denominated Class(es) will be subject to fluctuation.  Any devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated Class(es) of certain sub-funds.


Manulife Advanced Fund SPC

  • Manulife Advanced Fund SPC is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing primarily in equity and bond securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
  • The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
  • Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
  • A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in.  This may adversely affect its return and performance.
  • Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Market and custodial risks.
  • RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
  • Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
  • Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
  • Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose to a high risk of capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds.


Manulife Hong Kong Series

  • Manulife Hong Kong Series (“the Series”) is an open-ended unit trust comprising a number of funds primarily investing in equities, debt securities, exchange-traded funds and/or collective investment schemes, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
  • The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
  • Certain funds may involve equity market, emerging markets, Dim Sum bond market, concentration, volatility, liquidity, credit, credit ratings, below investment grade and unrated securities, credit rating downgrading, interest rates, valuation, sovereign debt, unlisted debt securities, political and regulatory, currency, foreign exchange, derivative and structured product, hedging, and distribution risks.
  • Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
  • Certain fund is subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to investment in exchange traded funds, Strategic and Tactical Asset Rebalancing Strategy (“STARS”), small- and mid-capped companies, convertible bonds and the risks associated with securitised debt instruments and investments in loss-absorption features. Certain fund is a feeder fund that invests all or substantially all of its assets in another collective investment scheme (the “master fund”) and is therefore subject to the risks of investing in the master fund.
  • As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls, and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
  • Certain fund will not have direct investments other than cash, cash equivalents and financial derivative instruments (such as futures, options and forwards).
  • Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.
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