Skip to main content
Back

Global Macro Outlook Q3 2022: Navigating the gathering storm

Macroeconomic Strategy Team

7 July 2022

The question many investors are asking is whether the worst start for global markets in decades is behind us. Yet, as we enter the final half of 2022, the macroeconomic outlook remains extremely challenging, characterized by high inflation, weaker economic growth, and tighter financial conditions. While our base case is that inflation will ease into 2023, at this point in time, we find ourselves preoccupied with emerging risks to that view.

In H2 2022, we expect to see a recession in the euro area, a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in China, and a material economic slowdown in the United States (a recession in early 2023 seems likely at this point). In this edition of Global Macro Outlook, we'll find out how shifts in the macro backdrop could affect the global economy and where resilience can be found, key highlights are:

Hawkish central banks

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England, among others, have indirectly indicated that they will knowingly hike into a material growth slowdown to tamp down inflation. This will have an important negative impact on global growth.

Inflation: sticky food and energy prices

Even as COVID-19-related supply chain issues ease and higher interest rates begin to curb consumer spending, the surge in energy and fertilizer prices points to intensifying food price inflation ahead.

Little reprieve for emerging economies

The top three destinations for emerging-market (EM) exports—China, Europe, and the United States—are likely to experience a significant slowdown in growth. Demand for their products are likely to ebb, compounding the pressures of capital outflow.

The end of central bank puts?

Since the global financial crisis, markets have come to expect the Fed (and/or other central banks) to step in to limit declines in asset prices beyond a certain threshold. A rethink, we believe, is required.

Download the full version

  • Overweight utilities – stability meets growth in a rate-cutting cycle

    Heading into 2026, preferred securities remain an attractive asset class supported by strong fundamentals and favourable macro trends. In particular, utilities preferreds stand out as a core allocation, benefiting from structural growth drivers, such as artificial intelligence (AI)-driven energy demand, easing monetary policy, and their defensive characteristics amid potential market uncertainties.

    Read more
  • 2026 Outlook Series: Greater China Equities

    Greater China equity markets registered a strong equity rally in 2025 to date, driven by technology breakthroughs, demand for localisation, go-global demand, and upward earnings growth revisions.  We reiterate a positive view on Greater China equity markets going into 2026 as we believe Mainland and Taiwan are well-positioned to drive high-quality growth to the next level.

    Read more
  • 2026 Asia Equities ex-Japan Outlook: Positive catalysts drive continued momentum

    Asia equities ex-Japan delivered strong performance in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities, outlines in this investment note why she believes the outlook for the asset class remains constructive, underpinned by numerous positive catalysts: a softer US dollar, the US Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across geographies.

    Read more
See all
  • Overweight utilities – stability meets growth in a rate-cutting cycle

    Heading into 2026, preferred securities remain an attractive asset class supported by strong fundamentals and favourable macro trends. In particular, utilities preferreds stand out as a core allocation, benefiting from structural growth drivers, such as artificial intelligence (AI)-driven energy demand, easing monetary policy, and their defensive characteristics amid potential market uncertainties.

    read more
  • 2026 Outlook Series: Greater China Equities

    Greater China equity markets registered a strong equity rally in 2025 to date, driven by technology breakthroughs, demand for localisation, go-global demand, and upward earnings growth revisions.  We reiterate a positive view on Greater China equity markets going into 2026 as we believe Mainland and Taiwan are well-positioned to drive high-quality growth to the next level.

    read more
  • 2026 Asia Equities ex-Japan Outlook: Positive catalysts drive continued momentum

    Asia equities ex-Japan delivered strong performance in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities, outlines in this investment note why she believes the outlook for the asset class remains constructive, underpinned by numerous positive catalysts: a softer US dollar, the US Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across geographies.

    read more
see all