Macroeconomic Strategy Team
7 July 2022
The question many investors are asking is whether the worst start for global markets in decades is behind us. Yet, as we enter the final half of 2022, the macroeconomic outlook remains extremely challenging, characterized by high inflation, weaker economic growth, and tighter financial conditions. While our base case is that inflation will ease into 2023, at this point in time, we find ourselves preoccupied with emerging risks to that view.
In H2 2022, we expect to see a recession in the euro area, a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in China, and a material economic slowdown in the United States (a recession in early 2023 seems likely at this point). In this edition of Global Macro Outlook, we'll find out how shifts in the macro backdrop could affect the global economy and where resilience can be found, key highlights are:
Hawkish central banks
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England, among others, have indirectly indicated that they will knowingly hike into a material growth slowdown to tamp down inflation. This will have an important negative impact on global growth.
Inflation: sticky food and energy prices
Even as COVID-19-related supply chain issues ease and higher interest rates begin to curb consumer spending, the surge in energy and fertilizer prices points to intensifying food price inflation ahead.
Little reprieve for emerging economies
The top three destinations for emerging-market (EM) exports—China, Europe, and the United States—are likely to experience a significant slowdown in growth. Demand for their products are likely to ebb, compounding the pressures of capital outflow.
The end of central bank puts?
Since the global financial crisis, markets have come to expect the Fed (and/or other central banks) to step in to limit declines in asset prices beyond a certain threshold. A rethink, we believe, is required.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Global Semiconductor
The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: GEDI
Against a highly uncertain backdrop in the first half of 2026, Manulife’s Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund (‘the Fund’) posted resilient performance with relatively lower volatility. This result was driven by the Fund’s four investment pillars, which favour an income-centric approach, coupled with global diversification across growth, value, and income equities. In this 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, Paul Kalogirou, Head of Client Portfolio Management, Asia & Global Multi-Asset Solutions, explains how the Fund’s unique structure allows for consistent income generation and potential upside across the market cycle, while also identifying key opportunities and risks for the second half of the year.
2026 Mid-year Outlook Series: Diversified Real Assets
Global supply chains are resetting under deglobalisation and geopolitics, shifting from global efficiency to more expensive regional resilience, embedding higher structural costs. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a new demand driver, accelerating investment in power, infrastructure, and materials. Against this backdrop of structurally higher inflation and dual demand pressures – from both supply-chain rewiring and AI capital expenditure – we believe real assets may play an increasingly important role in portfolios, offering exposure to long-term secular growth and AI trends.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Global Semiconductor
The semiconductor sector remains a key enabler of the global economy, underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electrification. As highlighted in our earlier insights, it represents a broad ecosystem supported by structural demand and real infrastructure investment. Following strong year-to-date performance, we see growing conviction that momentum can extend into the second half of 2026 and into 2027, driven by earnings strength, sustained capital investment, and early-stage AI adoption.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: GEDI
Against a highly uncertain backdrop in the first half of 2026, Manulife’s Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund (‘the Fund’) posted resilient performance with relatively lower volatility. This result was driven by the Fund’s four investment pillars, which favour an income-centric approach, coupled with global diversification across growth, value, and income equities. In this 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, Paul Kalogirou, Head of Client Portfolio Management, Asia & Global Multi-Asset Solutions, explains how the Fund’s unique structure allows for consistent income generation and potential upside across the market cycle, while also identifying key opportunities and risks for the second half of the year.
2026 Mid-year Outlook Series: Diversified Real Assets
Global supply chains are resetting under deglobalisation and geopolitics, shifting from global efficiency to more expensive regional resilience, embedding higher structural costs. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a new demand driver, accelerating investment in power, infrastructure, and materials. Against this backdrop of structurally higher inflation and dual demand pressures – from both supply-chain rewiring and AI capital expenditure – we believe real assets may play an increasingly important role in portfolios, offering exposure to long-term secular growth and AI trends.