Macroeconomic Strategy Team
6 July 2023
Key takeaways
1. The market is premature in its pricing of dovish pivots from central banks, both in terms of timing and magnitude.
2. There’s a risk that even if the Fed pauses in the coming months, the next move could be more tightening, not easing.
3. Markets need to reassess the central bank put for asset prices.
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This outlook analyses the near-term tailwinds propelling returns in Asian fixed income, as well as the structural fundamentals and shifting geopolitical trends that could support the asset class over the long-term.
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Midyear 2025 global macro outlook: what’s changed and what hasn’t
More forceful-than-expected government policy decisions, particularly by the United States, have swiftly overtaken some of our early 2025 views. Global trade issues and deglobalization have indeed come to the fore, with knock-on effects for many trade-sensitive emerging markets. Elsewhere, capital markets the world over are contending with a big wave of government debt supply, which is driving global bond yields higher.