
Macroeconomic Strategy Team
4 April 2023
Events of the past quarter have strengthened our conviction on several of the team’s core economic views.
In our view, the macro backdrop will get worse before it gets better in the current global economic cycle, and investors should expect to experience higher and longer bouts of volatility through the first half of 2023.
At this point, we believe it’s crucial to reassess how we should be thinking about the Fed’s approach to policy making, especially in the context of the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history which has raised doubts about the health of the U.S. banking system.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Asian Fixed Income
In this Mid-Year Outlook, the Asian Fixed Income team explains this important change in monetary policy expectations, and why the asset class is well positioned to capitalise on it.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Greater China Equities
Greater China equity markets showed divergent trends in the first half of 2026, with China A-shares and the Taiwan Taiex index registering strong gains driven by resilient technology exports amid global demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, the MSCI China market pulled back, weighed by commerce subsidies amid fierce competition in food delivery and rising AI capital expenditure, which we believe have already been priced in. In this mid-year Outlook, we highlight five positive drivers for China and Hong Kong equities in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the team explains why it believes the Taiwan region’s technology sector should continue to enjoy positive momentum.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: Asia Equities ex-Japan
Asia equities ex-Japan continued the significant momentum from 2025 with strong performance throughout the first half of the year. Amid numerous catalysts, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities outlines in this Mid-Year Outlook why she is constructive on the asset class for the remainder of 2026. Positive drivers include: potential geopolitical resolution in the Middle East and lower energy costs, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across the region.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Asian Fixed Income
In this Mid-Year Outlook, the Asian Fixed Income team explains this important change in monetary policy expectations, and why the asset class is well positioned to capitalise on it.
2026 Mid-year outlook: Greater China Equities
Greater China equity markets showed divergent trends in the first half of 2026, with China A-shares and the Taiwan Taiex index registering strong gains driven by resilient technology exports amid global demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, the MSCI China market pulled back, weighed by commerce subsidies amid fierce competition in food delivery and rising AI capital expenditure, which we believe have already been priced in. In this mid-year Outlook, we highlight five positive drivers for China and Hong Kong equities in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the team explains why it believes the Taiwan region’s technology sector should continue to enjoy positive momentum.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook Series: Asia Equities ex-Japan
Asia equities ex-Japan continued the significant momentum from 2025 with strong performance throughout the first half of the year. Amid numerous catalysts, June Chua, Head of Asia Equities outlines in this Mid-Year Outlook why she is constructive on the asset class for the remainder of 2026. Positive drivers include: potential geopolitical resolution in the Middle East and lower energy costs, supportive earnings and valuations, and differentiated growth drivers across the region.