16 March, 2020
Frances Donald, Chief Economist

The Fed sent a jolt through the financial markets on Sunday, 15 March, by cutting interest rates by a full percentage point three days before its scheduled rate-setting meeting. While an imminent rate cut had been expected, the timing of the announcement was a surprise. The decision brings the US interest rate back to the level it was during much of the 2008 global financial crisis (0%–0.25%). Our Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Macroeconomic Strategy Frances Donald takes a closer look.
We’ve written previously that we believe the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would have to move aggressively before its scheduled March 18 meeting; however, even we hadn’t expected this level of action. In our view, the US central bank has thrown just about every tool available at its disposal at the markets and the US economy.
It’s important to note that the package Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced on 15 March isn’t just about the interest-rate cut, it also includes:
In our view, there’s absolutely a growth component here. It’s becoming increasingly clear that we’re staring down the barrel of an extremely pronounced growth shock—one that may be short in duration, but painful in terms of depth. There are many market commentators who say that rate cuts at this point won’t help growth. I respectfully disagree: They absolutely do, just not to the same degree they have in the past. Mortgage applications during the week ended 6 March rose 55% from the previous week, led by refinancing. This is evidence of lower rates at work. At the margin, it should also help the consumer by lowering some bills, which could translate into slightly higher disposable income.
The more important point here, however, is that what we’re dealing with could be bigger than a coronavirus-created recession—policymakers are acting to steer us away from a potential credit crunch. In our mind, the Fed is clearly trying to prevent a repeat of 2008 and keep us in a 2001 type of recession from which we can bounce back much more quickly. The US Treasury market has seen sizable funding issues in the past week and has been displaying signs of stress. As Chair Powell noted during the Fed’s press conference, the Treasury market is typically the most liquid, and any sign of stress is therefore concerning and could translate into broader market dysfunction. He also noted that he felt it was important that the Fed “support market functioning.”2
Of course not. The Fed may be out of rate cuts, but it’s not out of tools. We’re expecting more action from the Fed in the weeks ahead.
Ultimately, we believe that the Fed’s package won’t be able to prevent a recession if that’s where the US economy is headed—and it probably is. However, this package will likely support credit channels and enable the healthy functioning of the US Treasury market, thereby preventing severe financial contagion from taking place. That said, overall visibility remains limited. Hopefully, the fog will clear soon.
1 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, federalreserve.gov, 15 March 2020.
2 “FOMC Press Conference Call,” 15 March 2020
Global Multi Asset Diversified Income Strategy (GMADI) update: A balanced approach to market volatility
Global equity markets have recently experienced sharper movements, particularly in areas linked to artificial intelligence (AI). Earnings announcements from AI hardware, semiconductor and large cloud-computing companies have been key sources of volatility. Concerns about potential interest rate hikes have added to uncertainty. The Global Multi Asset Diversified Income (GMADI) Strategy has not been immune to these market movements. However, its income focus, broad diversification and relatively defensive positioning may help limit the effect of sharp changes in technology and growth-related investments.
Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund: Staying selective through market volatility
Global equity markets have recently experienced greater volatility. Much of this has been driven by earnings announcements from AI hardware, semiconductor and large cloud-computing companies. Concerns about potential interest rate hikes have also added to investor uncertainty. After a prolonged period of strong performance in AI-related areas, market expectations have become demanding. Even companies reporting solid results have experienced sharp share-price moves when their outlook has only met, rather than exceeded, investor expectations. Against this backdrop, the GEDI Fund remains focused on its core objective: generating income while maintaining diversified exposure to potential capital growth.
Real assets and the infrastructure behind AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) is often positioned as a story of models and applications, but its growth depends heavily on something far more tangible. Real assets such as data centres, power grids, and raw materials form the physical that supports AI development. As structural forces reshape the investment landscape, real assets are emerging as an enabler of the AI buildout.
Global Multi Asset Diversified Income Strategy (GMADI) update: A balanced approach to market volatility
Global equity markets have recently experienced sharper movements, particularly in areas linked to artificial intelligence (AI). Earnings announcements from AI hardware, semiconductor and large cloud-computing companies have been key sources of volatility. Concerns about potential interest rate hikes have added to uncertainty. The Global Multi Asset Diversified Income (GMADI) Strategy has not been immune to these market movements. However, its income focus, broad diversification and relatively defensive positioning may help limit the effect of sharp changes in technology and growth-related investments.
Global Equity Diversified Income (GEDI) Fund: Staying selective through market volatility
Global equity markets have recently experienced greater volatility. Much of this has been driven by earnings announcements from AI hardware, semiconductor and large cloud-computing companies. Concerns about potential interest rate hikes have also added to investor uncertainty. After a prolonged period of strong performance in AI-related areas, market expectations have become demanding. Even companies reporting solid results have experienced sharp share-price moves when their outlook has only met, rather than exceeded, investor expectations. Against this backdrop, the GEDI Fund remains focused on its core objective: generating income while maintaining diversified exposure to potential capital growth.
Real assets and the infrastructure behind AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) is often positioned as a story of models and applications, but its growth depends heavily on something far more tangible. Real assets such as data centres, power grids, and raw materials form the physical that supports AI development. As structural forces reshape the investment landscape, real assets are emerging as an enabler of the AI buildout.