Hong Kong – Manulife Investment Management today released its Asia markets and investment outlook for the first half of 2026, highlighting a clearer global macroeconomic picture, improving policy visibility, and Asia’s continued role as a source of differentiated growth and diversification for investors. As inflation moderates and monetary policy easing gains traction, the firm sees a more constructive environment for selective risk-taking across Asian equities, fixed income, and multi-asset portfolios.
Global growth is expected to remain steady in early 2026, supported by gradual interest rate cuts, resilient corporate earnings, and ongoing investment in productivity-enhancing themes such as artificial intelligence and digitalization. While geopolitical risks and fiscal challenges in developed markets remain key watchpoints, Asia’s domestic demand resilience, policy flexibility, and structural reform momentum continue to underpin its long-term investment appeal.
Macro outlook: Clearer policy visibility supports selective risk-taking
Yuting Shao, Senior Global Macro Strategist, believes global macro conditions are becoming more balanced as markets move beyond the extreme volatility of recent years.
Shao said: “Heading into 2026, the global macro picture is clearer than it has been in some time. Inflation is moderating across major economies, and central banks are increasingly able to focus on supporting growth rather than fighting price pressures. While policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks remain, the direction of travel for monetary policy is more predictable, creating a more constructive backdrop for investors globally and across Asia.”
Shao added that Asia is well positioned to benefit from easing financial conditions, a softer US dollar bias, and differentiated domestic growth drivers. Asia’s economic cycles remain less synchronized with developed markets, and that divergence continues to create opportunities for investors.
Asia multi-asset: Disciplined positioning amid improving conditions
Luke Browne, Global Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, Asia, said the firm remains modestly constructive on risk assets, with a continued emphasis on diversification and discipline.
Browne commented: “Entering 2026, we remain modestly overweight equities relative to fixed income, reflecting resilient earnings, supportive fiscal spending, and the gradual easing of monetary policy. At the same time, elevated valuations, inflation, geopolitics, the AI trade debate, energy transition and a new Fed composition mean asset allocation decisions need to remain selective and dynamic.”
Within fixed income, Browne noted a preference for shorter-duration exposures and selective credit opportunities in Asia and emerging markets, given ongoing volatility at the long end of yield curves. “Asian assets continue to play an important role in multi-asset portfolios by offering diversification benefits and exposure to growth drivers that are less reliant on developed market cycles,” Browne added.
Asia equities: Supportive earnings and structural growth drivers
June Chua, Head of Asia Equities, said the outlook for Asian equities remains constructive heading into the first half of 2026, supported by favorable currency dynamics and improving earnings visibility.
Chua explained: “Asia ex-Japan equities delivered strong performance in 2025, helped by US dollar weakness and easing financial conditions. Looking ahead, positive earnings revisions for 2026 and 2027 remain supportive of valuations, while global investor allocations to Asian equities are still relatively low, suggesting room for further re-engagement.”
Highlighting structural opportunities across Asia, Chua notes that in China, policy clarity under the 15th Five-Year Plan continues to support innovation-led growth across areas such as artificial intelligence, new energy, advanced manufacturing, and healthcare. Taiwan also remains central to the global AI ecosystem, benefiting from demand for advanced semiconductor packaging and data center-related infrastructure.
Elsewhere in the region, ASEAN markets continue to benefit from supply-chain diversification, infrastructure investment, and improving domestic demand, albeit with selective opportunities across markets. India’s recent fiscal and monetary measures are helping to re-anchor growth toward domestic consumption and offset near-term external pressures. Korea is seeing improving capital discipline and shareholder-friendly reforms that could support valuation re-rating.
Chua added: “Dispersion across markets and sectors remains high, and active stock selection remains critical as we focus on companies with strong balance sheets, sustainable earnings growth, and exposure to long-term structural themes.”
Asia fixed income: income and diversification in a changing world
Murray Collis, Head of Asia Fixed Income, said Asia fixed income enters 2026 with positive momentum, supported by lower interest rates and improving market breadth.
Collis commented: “Despite a challenging global backdrop in recent years, Asian fixed income has delivered resilient performance, and we see that momentum continuing into 2026. A lower US interest rate environment, an evolving Asian high-yield universe, and growing diversification away from the US dollar are creating attractive opportunities for investors.”
He added that Asia’s fixed income opportunity set has become broader and more balanced. “Asian high yield is increasingly diversified and higher quality than in the past, while local currency bond markets are benefiting from stronger investor interest amid de-dollarization trends and currency diversification. These dynamics are reinforcing Asia’s role as a source of both income and portfolio diversification.”
He also emphasized that active management remains critical. “Policy paths, credit fundamentals, and market technicals vary significantly across the region. China, Japan, and India stand out as key markets where policy support, market depth, and structural reforms continue to enhance the investment case, but selectivity and risk management will be essential in navigating 2026,” Collis added.
Positioning for the first half of 2026
Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, Manulife Investment Management expects Asia to remain a key destination for investors seeking growth, income, and diversification amid an evolving global landscape. While volatility and uncertainty are likely to persist, improving macro visibility and supportive policy trends are creating a more balanced environment for long-term investors.
Shao concluded: “Asia’s investment story in 2026 is not about a single market or theme. It is about resilience, diversification, and the ability to adapt in a world that continues to evolve.”
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